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Nov. 15, 2024

Trump’s Housing Market Impact: Rates, Policies, and Affordability in 2025

Trump’s Housing Market Impact: Rates, Policies, and Affordability in 2025
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The Texas Real Estate & Finance Podcast with Mike Mills

What do rising mortgage rates, record-low inventory, and Trump’s economic agenda mean for real estate in 2025? This episode dives into the strategies you need to thrive amidst uncertainty. Don’t miss out—your future clients are counting on you to stay ahead.

On this week’s Texas Real Estate and Finance Podcast, we analyze the post-election housing market, focusing on the housing affordability crisis, historic rate trends, and the impact of President Trump’s proposed policies. We tackle the challenges of limited inventory, surging multifamily construction, and shifting demographics in homebuying. Discover practical insights on how deregulation and tax incentives could influence supply and affordability. And don’t miss the final segment where we unveil a powerful AI-driven tool designed to elevate your real estate business for the year ahead.

Key Takeaways

Mortgage Rates Remain Volatile Amid Economic Uncertainty

Mortgage rates have been on a rollercoaster, fluctuating between the low 6% range and above 7% within weeks. Factors like weak job creation, declining banking liquidity, and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts are contributing to this unpredictability. Understanding these dynamics is critical for navigating today’s market.

Trump’s Policies Could Reshape Housing Affordability

With Trump’s return to the White House, key policies on tariffs, immigration, and deregulation are expected to impact housing costs and supply. While deregulation and tax incentives could encourage construction, tariffs on building materials and immigration restrictions may exacerbate affordability challenges.

The Housing Affordability Crisis Intensifies

Home prices have risen 57% since 2020, far outpacing wage growth at just 28%, making homeownership increasingly out of reach. The typical age of first-time buyers has climbed to 38, reflecting the growing challenges younger generations face in entering the market.

Economic Pressures Are Reshaping Real Estate Trends

Rising national debt and shrinking market liquidity are putting pressure on the economy and real estate markets. The Federal Reserve’s actions and Trump’s economic agenda could lead to further market volatility, requiring professionals to stay vigilant and adapt to changing conditions.

Revolutionize Your Business Planning with AI Tools

The episode closes with an introduction to ChatGPT as a transformative tool for real estate professionals. This AI platform can help streamline business planning, marketing, and operations, offering agents a competitive edge in 2025’s uncertain market.

Resources Mentioned in This Episode

National Association of Realtors (NAR): https://www.nar.realtor

Mortgage News Daily: https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

CoreLogic Home Price Insights: https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/reports/home-price-insights/

HousingWire – Logan Mohtashami's Analysis: https://www.housingwire.com/author/logan-mohtashami/

IRS Opportunity Zones: https://www.irs.gov/credits-deductions/businesses/opportunity-zones

ChatGPT by OpenAI: https://chat.openai.com

ChatGPT Prompts for Business Planning:

Pillar 1: Business Foundation and Strategy

  • Free Prompt: "Ask me a series of questions to help define my real estate business foundation, covering brand identity, target client, market niche, and target price point. Go one question at a time and summarize with tailored suggestions."
  • Paid Prompt: "Chat, using everything you know about me from my custom setup, guide me through a series of questions to help define my brand, ideal client, market niche, and price point. Go one question at a time and summarize with tailored suggestions based on my unique style, experience, and goals."

Pillar 2: Marketing and Client Acquisition

  • Free Prompt: "Chat, ask me a series of questions to develop a marketing game plan for reaching my ideal clients. Cover my current marketing activities, preferred social media platforms, and client engagement strategy. Go one question at a time and summarize with tailored suggestions."
  • Paid Prompt: "Chat, based on my custom GPT, ask me a series of tailored questions about my favorite marketing activities, best social platforms for my target clients, and ways I currently engage my clients. Go one question at a time and summarize with tailored suggestions based on my unique style, experience, and goals."

Pillar 3: Operations and Professional Growth

  • Free Prompt: "Guide me in building my operations plan with questions about my daily and weekly routines, skill-building goals, and wellness practices. Go one question at a time and summarize with suggestions for improving my time management and focus."
  • Paid Prompt: "Chat, using my custom profile, ask tailored questions on organizing my schedule, skills to develop for my target market, and wellness routines to keep me motivated in growing my business. Go one question at a time and summarize with tailored suggestions based on my unique style, experience, and goals.


TIMESTAMPS

[0:00 - 1:47] - Introduction and Overview of Election Impact

[1:50 - 2:39] - Mortgage Rates and Market Uncertainty

[2:39 - 6:56] - The Growing Housing Affordability Crisis

[6:56 - 12:37] - Housing Supply and Regional Market Variations

[12:37 - 16:15] - Multifamily Housing and Affordable Construction Trends

[16:15 - 21:07] - Trump’s Election Victory and Political Implications

[21:07 - 24:29] - Trump’s Policies and Their Potential Housing Market Effects

[24:30 - 29:13] - Deregulation, Opportunity Zones, and Long-Term Housing Strategies

[29:13 - 34:24] - Leveraging ChatGPT for Business Planning in 2025

[34:24 - 35:20] - Closing Thoughts and Takeaways

Chapters

00:00 - Introduction and Overview of Election Impact

01:50 - Mortgage Rates and Market Uncertainty

02:39 - The Growing Housing Affordability Crisis

06:56 - Housing Supply and Regional Market Variations

12:37 - Multifamily Housing and Affordable Construction Trends

16:15 - Trump’s Election Victory and Political Implications

24:30 - Deregulation, Opportunity Zones, and Long-Term Housing Strategies

29:13 - Leveraging ChatGPT for Business Planning in 2025

34:24 - Closing Thoughts and Takeaways

Transcript
Mike Mills

According to the national association of realtors, only about 20% of agents actually sit down each year to create or update a business plan. That's it, just 20%. But think about it. If you can become part of that 20%, imagine the impact it would have on your business.

But let's face it, business planning takes time and focus, and a lot of agents just get overwhelmed even by the thought of it. Or really, in many cases, just don't know where to start. Well, today I'm going to show you the hack of all hacks that'll get you into that top 20%.

And if you follow these steps, not only are you going to develop a skill that very few people have, but you're also going to have a powerful business partner to put this plan into action and guide you to accomplish all that you set out to do for next year. So what is this powerful game changing tool? What's up to all you housing policy pundits out there? Dust is settled and the ballots have been counted.

We've got a new president. This time the American public made their choice loud and clear. No ambiguity, no recount drama, only a new mandate for the incoming administration.

And whether you're celebrating now or just bracing for what's to come, one thing is absolutely certain.

The world keeps turning, the markets keep shifting, and we've all got to keep on grinding because 2025 is right around the corner and we all got to be ready. Welcome to Texas Real Estate and Finance podcast Market Update for the week of November 13th.

I'm your host, Mike Mills, a North Texas mortgage banker with Geneva Financial, and I'm here to cut through all the noise and deliver what you need to know to stay ahead in this ever changing market.

From the roller coaster of mortgage rates to the latest on housing affordability, inventory challenges, and of course, how the new administration could reshape the landscape of our entire industry. There's a ton to unpack. We got a big show ready for you today, so let's get right to it.

As always, we're going to kick things off with mortgage rates and the madness that is the market right now. As of this week, rates are back on that wild Rol roller coaster ride creeping back towards those sevens again.

And somehow, despite record high stock, commodity and bitcoin prices, the Fed decided to cut rates again last week. So what's really going on with these mortgage rates, job data, and the Fed's intentions for the rest of this year?

I'll break down all the numbers, share the hidden warning signs, and discuss why These unpredictable markets got everybody guessing. After that, is the American dream of homeownership slipping out of reach.

We'll discuss the shifting landscape of today's housing market, where record prices, climbing mortgage rates and drastic inventory shortages are creating the perfect storm for affordability challenges as they have all year long. We'll discuss the latest trends, demographic shifts, and potential policy moves that are reshaping the market as we know it.

After that, the election results are in and Donald J. Trump is headed back to the White House. But what does this historic mean for our country and more importantly, our industry?

I'm breaking down Trump's return to power, the support driving his second term, and why his team may just be the biggest factor that's shaping America's future. Plus, I'll share a few of my own thoughts on what both Republicans and Democrats need to do in the coming years. Don't miss this.

Dive into a presidency that's already making some big waves.

And then we'll talk about, with Trump returning to the White House, what his policies specifically could mean for mortgage rates, housing supply and affordability.

I'll break down how proposed tariffs, immigration policies, and deregulation might affect the housing market and whether or not we can actually expect to see some real change in affordability. And for our main course today, we're going to dive deep into a game changing approach to business planning for 2025.

Imagine having 247 access to a personal business coach who can guide you through setting goals, building your marketing strategy, and optimizing your daily routines for success. And all for absolutely free. Sounds impossible, right?

Well, stick around to the end and I'll reveal how a tool you probably already know about could be the secret weapon to help elevate your real estate business in 2025. And trust me, you don't want to miss this.

Now, before we dive in, I got a real quick favor to ask if today's episode gives you a fresh perspective, a new idea, or even just a good solid little chuckle. Take a moment and subscribe or leave a review.

Share this episode with a friend, colleague or client who's interested in this chaos we call real estate. Together we can grow this community and help more people make smarter moves in the face of all this change.

And oh by the way, if you or your clients are weighing some big decisions like refinancing, taking advantage of home equity, or tackling those first steps of homeownership, I would love to help you guys. Support is what keeps this thing going strong and I'm here to support you in return. So thanks for tuning in and being supportive.

We're all in this together. Okay, let's tackle the question that changes more often than the price of eggs. Hey Mike, what are the rates?

Well, according to Mortgage News daily as of November 13, 2024, the average 30 year conventional mortgage rate is about 7.01%, the average 15 year conventional rate is about 6.37%, the average FHA 30 year rate is about 6.32%, the average 30 year VA rate is about 6.34% and the average jumbo rate is around 7.2%. And to be clear, these are average market rates provided by Mortgage News Daily and may not reflect the specific rates that you qualify for.

Mortgage rates can vary widely depending on factors like your credit score, loan type, down payment, among others.

For accurate information about your personal mortgage option, it's important to speak with a licensed mortgage professional like me or your lender there. Cover my butt. So last week, two days after the election, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, as everybody expected that they would.

Now let me clarify again, because I kind of always have to Fed rate cuts don't directly affect mortgage rates, but if you got some money in a money market fund right now, you're likely to see a lower return coming your way. But here's the place where I start to get a little confused.

Stocks, commodities, gold, silver and even Bitcoin are hitting all time highs right now, which typically would suggest a booming economy, at least in most of those cases. So why again would the Fed cut rates right now if the economy seems to be moving full steam ahead?

Well, I think the answer lies in the unemployment numbers and job creation.

You see, the latest jobs report for October was at best Underwhelming, with only 12,000 new jobs added to the economy compared to an expected 100,000. And the past two previous months jobs reports were all revised down again as it has been the case all year long.

And even though technically the unemployment rate stayed the same in October, it's really just because about 200,000 people left the workforce altogether. You see, right now I believe the Fed is cutting rates to address concerns about slowing job growth and economic weakness.

The headline numbers don't fully capture because in reality the economy might not be as strong as Wall street thinks it could be booming right now for the top 10% of the country that own 93% of the stocks. But Main street or the average Joe is feeling quite a bit less secure now.

Time will tell who's right, but either the Fed sees and knows something that we do not, or they're just plain dumb. And right now, in this market, I'm not exactly sure which one of those is scarier.

So rates have been on quite the roller coaster over the past six weeks. We saw them dip down into the low 6% range in early October, almost hitting the 5 number, only to shoot back up above 7 within a month.

And as of last week after the election, they look to be trending back down to the 6% range. And then today and yesterday, we're right back up. So what is with all this back and forth?

Well, last week the Fed dropped its fed Funds rate to 4.625, down from 5.375 back in mid September. And that's quite a significant move in such a short amount of time. But the question is, are they going to keep cutting?

Well, based on market predictions right now, it seems pretty likely, which tells me that the Fed is seeing some weakness in the economy and more specifically in the job market. But beyond those job numbers, I feel there's a bigger, less talked about concern.

And that's the US Federal debt, which I've been talking about on this show for many, many weeks. And to even begin addressing this mountain of debt, the federal government desperately needs interest rates to come down.

Right now, the US owes a hefty 4.3 trillion to the Federal Reserve alone, out of the nearly 34 trillion total current national debt. And lower interest rates would help reduce the cost of servicing that debt to the US Government dramatically.

Now, another possible warning sign the Fed's looking at is liquidity in the banking system.

Currently there's this thing called the reverse repo market, and this is a tool that banks use to help meet reserve requirements on an overnight basis. And this reverse repo market recently dropped below 200 billion for the first time since May of 2021.

And when that balance sheet starts to get pretty low, it can be a signal that the overall market liquidity is shrinking, which can ultimately tighten up lending and add further volatility. So here we are. Rising unemployment, increasing federal debt, and shrinking liquidity in the bank system.

Together, these factors don't exactly spell a bright future for the market. And yet we stand here today with financial markets performing like we're at the peak of a booming economy.

But if there's one thing that the market's taught us since COVID is that past performance is no longer a reliable predictor on future results, we are in uncharted waters with new rules to this market game that are still being written. Maybe Someone somewhere out there sees exactly how this is all going to play out.

But with the constant influx of data and countless opinions on the Internet, it's really, really tough to sift through it all.

All I can say for sure right now is it's anyone's guess when the dust does finally settle in all this chaos, whether it's due to rising debt, a booming market, a sudden crash, currency devaluation, or maybe even in an era where debt truly doesn't matter, whoever predicted it right will likely just have gotten lucky. This market's unpredictable, and I have a strong feeling that we're going to keep seeing lots of volatility in the coming months.

But rest assured, I will be here to help make sense of it all when it does actually happen. And if any of my personal predictions turn out to be true for the future, well, then, let's just call it a lucky guess. All right, moving on.

So today's housing market feels like it's standing on a fault line with affordability challenges, high mortgage rates, and new construction trends shifting the landscape right under our feet. And if you're wondering where all this stuff is heading, we're about to take a closer look at all this stuff shaping these wild times.

So right now, the American dream of homeownership is facing a historic affordability crisis unlike anything that we've seen before. Just a few Years ago, around 60% of Americans felt it was a good time to buy a home.

But today, according to Fannie Mae's latest survey, that number's plummeted down to only 20%. Housing prices have skyrocketed while wage growth has not kept up, leaving would be buyers struggling to keep the pace.

In fact, since 2020, home prices have jumped up an astounding 57% while average wages have grown just 28%. That's right, housing prices have risen at twice the rate of wages, and mortgage rates right now are no small part of that challenge.

We're currently seeing rates around 7% for a 30 year fixed loan, which is a far cry from the sub 3% rates that many homeowners locked in and are still holding on to today, keeping listings from climbing.

And these higher rates have also sidelined many first time homebuyers, with the market share of this group dropping from a peak of 50% in 2010 to just 24% today. And not surprisingly, the typical homebuyer's age has hit a new record of 56 years old compared to an average age of 45 just two years ago.

You see younger buyers are Finding it nearly impossible to enter this market. And the age of these first time homebuyers has climbed from 33 to 38 this year.

Homeownership is becoming increasingly out of reach for many young Americans. A troubling shift for the future of the housing market. And while home prices have stabilized, they aren't dropping.

The Core Logic Home Price Index shows a slight increase in prices across the country this year, driven primarily by a shortage of available homes in many parts of the country. Logan Matashami from HousingWire recently described this as the second lowest inventory level in US history.

With just 1.2 million homes on the market right now, about half of the historical norm. There's simply not enough supply to meet demand, believe it or not.

And even with higher mortgage rates, this overall imbalance is what's keeping prices elevated. And the scarcity of homes has led to quite an unusual situation. You see, new home sales are now making up about 28% of the market.

That's nearly three times the typical share because builders have ramped up production to fill the gap. But they can't build homes fast enough to meet the demand. And even then, many of these new homes are priced beyond the reach of average buyers.

In Texas, however, we're seeing quite a bit different story. Inventory spiked up to its highest level since 2017, with cities like Austin, Dallas and San Antonio experiencing inventory surpluses upwards of 40%.

Now, for buyers in Texas, this means more options and potentially some relief from the price pressure in other parts of the country. And in response to the scarcity of homes across the country, there's been a record breaking push to build multifamily housing.

The US is currently adding 647,000 new multifamily units every year. That's the fastest pace on record since 1990.

And these new units are hoping to offer a lifeline to those priced out of the single family market, providing more affordable rental options and potentially easing the demand for single family homes over time. But multifamily housing is generally not what most people want. They want their own place with their own land.

So we're seeing builders respond with smaller, more affordable single family homes. Like a new Lennar community north of Houston, offering homes at around $163,000 for a modest two bedroom, two and a half bath layout.

Now, these homes are smaller than the average single family home at just over a thousand square feet. But they are at least an option for buyers who want affordability over size.

It's a new approach aimed at meeting the demand for more economical options. In a market where buyers are simply priced out. And on a broader scale, potential policy changes could reshape the housing market even further.

President Trump's Quantum Leap initiative includes ambitious ideas like developing new freedom Cities on federal land, offering economic incentives to support family growth growth and implementing urban modernization projects. He even suggested building up to 10 new cities and modernizing public spaces nationwide.

While these plans are still pretty high level, the goal is to address housing scarcity and boost the quality of life across the US So while these policy changes and new construction projects could help ease the strain in the long run, the reality is that we're in uncharted territory. Rising mortgage rates, limited inventory, and an affordability crisis have put us in a new era where the rules are still being written.

So while there is hope on the horizon in the form of new multifamily units, smaller homes, and potential policy shifts, it's clear that the road to recovery right now in housing affordability won't be quick or simple. Affordability is shaping up to be the defining issue of the next generation's housing market.

With inventory shortages, demographic shifts, and innovative but uncertain solutions all coming into play, the landscape is evolving rapidly. And while we're seeing some hopeful developments, it's clear we're navigating a very different market than in the last few years.

And as we move into 2025, staying informed will be more critical than ever, especially for buyers and sellers hoping to make the most of these shifting dynamics. All right, next up. Well, the results are in, and Donald J. Trump will be the 47th president of the United States.

So whether you're cheering or concerned, there's no denying the scale of this win.

Trump's return brings the GOP back into full control, with the Senate, the House, and the White House all in Republican hands for the first time in years. So we're not just going to talk about the election results.

We're diving into what this means for the country's future, why this win resonated so strongly with so many Americans, and what's next for both parties as they navigate this turning point. So let's get into it. So this marks Trump's triumphant return after a 2020 loss to Joe Biden following his first election win in 2016.

And now, as a Texan, I can't help think about the Dallas Cowboys in the 90s, winning two Super Bowls, letting go of a great head coach, struggling, and then climbing back to the top. It feels a little like Trump's political journey. And whatever your thoughts on President Trump, one thing is clear.

The majority of Americans wanted him back in the White House. He won the Electoral College by a landslide, 312 to 226, the largest margin for a Republican since George H.W. bush defeated Michael Dukakis in 1988.

He won the popular vote by over 3 million, something a Republican hasn't achieved since George W. Bush in 2004.

And to top it all off, Republicans now control the Senate and very likely the House of Representatives, giving the GOP a full hold on Congress for at least the next two years.

And with what looks like right now 53 seats or more in the Senate, any Cabinet member that Trump nominates will likely sail through without much objection. You see, the last time a Republican president had such an advantage for Cabinet approvals was when Ronald Reagan took office in 1980.

So to say this election was historic, especially from the Republican viewpoint, is quite an understatement. Now, I'll be honest. I am not personally a big fan of President Trump as a human being.

I wasn't a fan when he was on the Apprentice, and being from Texas, I never trust New Yorkers. And to me he often just comes across as a self serving narcissist only out for personal gain and celebrity. Do I think he's a Nazi? No.

Is he going to end democracy also? No. He was President for four years and the country survived with no problem. Some might even say it thrived.

Now, I have never personally voted for him prior to this election, but this time around I did. But let me clarify, I voted for the team around Trump, not just him as an individual. It's like when the Cowboys were coached by Barry Switzer.

I wasn't a fan of Switzer, but I love the team that he coached and that team achieved great things. And in the same way, I like the people around Trump and I think they can achieve great things for the country with his leadership.

For example, I respect Elon Musk for his genius, innovation and refusal to conform to traditional power structures. Yeah, he's quite a nutty character with his own personal flaws, but so are many visionaries that change the world. I appreciate Robert Kennedy Jr.

For his dedication to reforming the FDA, which has allowed pharmaceutical companies and other corporate influences to compromise public health, which has led to crisis levels of chronic disease and a food system that's exposed Americans to unnecessary chemicals for over half a century.

I admire Tulsi Gabbard's military service and her commitment to ending endless wars across the globe which have led to massive illegal immigration over the last few years that affect not just The US but almost all of Europe as well. And I'm getting to know Vice President President elect J.D. vance. I appreciate his level headed approach to government and humble background.

And I think we might very well see him and Tulsi leading a future Republican ticket in the coming years.

I'm also thrilled to see record support for this ticket from Latino and black Americans, because that tells me that most Americans, regardless of race, gender or religion, want the same things. Opportunity, fairness, and a shot at success through hard work and determination. That's the promise of America. And it's not given, it's earned.

And quite frankly, the more I hear from President Trump about his vision for the country, the more I like it. Do I agree with all of his plans? No, I don't. But you're never going to agree with any human on the planet 100%.

I just need to know that the ship is being steered in a direction overall that I can get behind. And at least for right now, that seems to be happening. So for all those celebrating on the red team, it is time for optimism and opportunity.

And for those on the blue team, maybe it's time to take a moment and reflect. Because running on a platform of that guy bad and we good isn't cutting it.

And pushing out an incumbent president without a primary process and appointing a successor without giving the electorate a say doesn't exactly build trust with the voting public.

The Democrats got a little soul searching to do ahead, especially if they want to win back voters like me, someone who supported Bernie Sanders of all people, a self proclaimed democratic socialist in 2016 and in 2020. So Democrats just come up with a policy, any policy, that isn't just Orange Man Bad. And as for the Republicans, the hard work starts right now.

They got a mandate from the people, but will they use it wisely? Will they govern in a way that benefits all Americans and works towards healing a divided nation? I for one, hope that they do so.

To President Trump and his team, congratulations on your victory. The people have spoken and this country is now yours to lead.

Please use the incredible power that the American people have entrusted to you and truly make America great again.

Because you got about two years to start moving that thing in the right direction or the people are going to speak again and hold you accountable if you don't. So show us what you got. With all this power so far, I'm excited to see what's possible.

All right, now let's get into Trump's actual policies on housing. So with Trump back in the White House, what's Next for housing. The affordability crisis was a huge issue in this election.

And now everyone's wondering if the new administration can bring rates down, boost supply, and actually make hous housing more affordable. So let's get into how Trump's policies on tariffs, immigration and deregulation could impact our industry.

Plus, I'll share with you my take on what 2025 might look like and why I think the housing crisis needs an Elon Musk sized solution. Now, first off, regardless of what the corporate media may say, this election was a clear referendum on the economy.

Whenever anyone in politics is asked what the top issue is, the answer always comes back, it's the economy, stupid. People are frustrated with high prices, high interest rates and job insecurity, so they voted for change. It's that simple.

And one of the biggest issues on voters minds was the affordability crisis in housing. We're dealing with the severe lack of supply, skyrocketing home prices and high rates.

And now the question is, will President Trump's economic policies improve or worsen these issues? Well, let's start with mortgage rates. Right after the election, the 10 year treasury yield spiked up, which led to a jump in mortgage rates.

And if you listen to this podcast on a regular basis, you know that the 10 year treasury and mortgage backed securities are very closely linked. When the 10 year treasury yield rises, so do mortgage rates.

Now, according to Logan Matashami of Housingwire in a recent Fox News article, many experts believe that Trump's fiscal policies could widen the federal deficit. Now, why does this matter? A larger deficit often raises bond yields as investors expect inflation, which in turn pushes up mortgage rates.

And historically, we saw a similar spike in rates after Trump's 2016 election, although very soon after it leveled off.

However, experts like realtor.com's Danielle Hale warn that in 2025 we could see rates stay elevated longer due to stronger inflation tied to Trump's agenda. Personally, I think the market's still pretty uncertain.

Rates in the 10 year yield have dipped again just in the last couple of days, only to spike back up again, not due to the Fed's rate cut or Trump's win, but likely because of weaker economic data, especially in job growth. And if this trend continues, we could see some relief in rates. But overall, Trump's first 100 day plans are pretty ambitious.

So expect market volatility as all these policies are implemented. Next, let's talk about housing supply, which affects affordability just as much, if not more, than interest rates.

So both Fox News and Market Watch report that Trump's potential tariffs on imported materials like lumber and steel could increase building costs. Fox pointed out that tariffs on Canadian lumber alone have added about 14,000 to the cost of a new home.

And if Trump raises these tariffs, it's likely to push construction costs even higher, impacting affordability. And Trump's stance on immigration, including potential mass deportations, could also shrink the already limited construction workforce.

Foreign born workers make up around 25 to 30% of construction labor right now, so if the labor pool tightens, we could see even slower building timelines and higher labor costs, all of which could put upward pressure on home prices. So in the short term, if tariffs and labor shortages happen, it could drive up construction costs.

Builders might steer away from affordable housing projects and instead focused on higher end projects. And this shift could further reduce the availability of reasonably priced homes that we really kind of need right now.

But personally, I believe these tariff threats are more of a negotiation tactic to encourage fair trader balances with other countries. Old Big Red likes to threaten and have a hammer in his pocket, but he rarely uses it.

And as for mass deportations, to me the logistics and expense make it likely we'll only see limited action.

I'd expect the focus to be on high profile deportations, mainly targeting violent offenders rather than a large scale effort because he's got to satisfy his base and this is a big issue.

And picking up violent offenders to march them out in front of the media while securing the border will be more of a focus in my opinion, rather than taking average people just working and living often cuffs. But we'll see. Now. One potential positive for builders is Trump's push for regulatory relief.

Market Watch notes that builders are optimistic about a lighter touch in the regulatory approach. Less red tape could speed up the building process and reduce compliance costs.

Fox News also mentioned that Trump may expand opportunity Zones, which provide tax benefits for developments in low income areas. David Dworkin from the National Housing Conference highlighted how these zones could encourage affordable housing if applied effectively.

And while these changes could motivate builders to ramp up construction, there's no guarantee it'll be focused on affordable homes because when costs do go down, businesses don't always pass those savings along to consumers. However, regulatory relief and tax incentives could help boost supply, especially if builders see financial benefits.

So in my opinion, rates won't improve significantly in the immediate term, but I think the economy isn't as strong as we've been led to believe over the past two years.

If Trump's administration brings transparency to economic data and reveals some of the weaknesses Rates could come down as the Fed responds to this slower growth. Plus, Trump has a history of favoring lower rates and could push the Fed in that direction.

He can't directly control the Fed, but he can apply pressure. And as for housing supply, I'm not sure that we're going to see a major boost anytime soon.

With existing homeowners locked into low rates, there is little incentive to sell. And builders may avoid affordable projects if costs keep rising.

So while 2025 might bring some rate relief, affordability is likely going to remain a major challenge. Ultimately, we don't just need more homes. We need more affordable homes. The average American family deserves options that don't break the bank.

I know it sounds like a pipe dream, but, hey, if Elon Musk can work on government efficiency, maybe he could take a swing at solving that housing affordability crisis. Hit me up, Elon. I got some ideas for you. Okay, on to our main story of the day.

Now, what if you had 247 access to a personal business coach to guide you through your 2025 planning, build your marketing strategy, and optimize your day for peak performance? And what if I told you that this coach could be absolutely free or at most, 20 bucks a month? Sounds a little bit like snake oil, doesn't it?

Well, give me just a few more minutes of your life, and I'll introduce you to a tool that you've certainly heard of but probably haven't realized its full potential. So, 2025 is just around the corner.

And with a housing market full of uncertainties and a new presidential administration expected to have a significant impact on the economy, every Realtor needs to be prepared. Whether the market goes up or down. Having a plan in place is essential to your 2025 success. However, here's the reality.

According to the national association of realtors, only about 20% of age actually sit down each year to create or update a business plan. That's it. Just 20%. But think about it. If you can become part of that 20%, imagine the impact it would have on your business.

But let's face it, business planning takes time and focus, and a lot of agents just get overwhelmed even by the thought of it. Or really, in many cases, just don't know where to start. Well, today I'm going to show you the hack of all hacks that'll get you into that top 20%.

And if you follow these steps, not only are you going to develop a skill that very few people have, but you're also going to have a powerful business partner to Put this plan into action and guide you to accomplish all that you set out to do for next year. So what is this powerful game changing tool? Well, I'm talking about AI of course, but more specifically ChatGPT.

Now before you switch this off and say that you aren't interested in AI and feel like it's overhyped, just hear me out for a minute. You see, AI, especially tools like Chat GPT, are a game changer if you know how to use. Think of it like this.

If it were 1995 and I was explaining how the Internet could transform your business, most people back then would have dismissed it as too complex or unnecessary. But where are those people today? You see, AI is the next big ship, whether you believe it or don't.

And getting on board as early as you possibly can, even if it's just in a small little way, will give you a serious advantage over all your competition that just doesn't want to mess with. So I promise to you, each week for the rest of 2024, I'm going to show you how to use a to build and run your business in 2025.

It's not going to replace you or do everything for you, but it will make everything easier, faster and optimized to get the best version of you in 2025. So I'm going to give you actionable steps and prompts to get you started. If you're looking for some more in depth guidance, just reach out to me.

I teach these strategies in classrooms all across Texas and we'd be happy to work with you one on one or even present them to your brokerage. Plus, you can earn CE credit for this course. Just let me know if you're interested. All right, let's get into it. So let's start with the basics.

What makes a great business plan and how can ChatGPT help you create it? Well, there are three pillars of a strong business plan. Number one, business foundation and strategy.

Number two, marketing and client acquisition and number three, operations and professional Growth. Each of these pillars keeps your business stable, scalable and effective. So let's start with number one, Business foundation and Strategy.

Here's where you want to define your brand, your target client, your ideal price points and your business goals. This gives you clarity on who you are, who you're serving, and what you want to achieve in 2025. Now, quick note here.

All of these prompts that I'm about to give you to use inside ChatGPT are going to be available in the show notes so you don't have to write them down while I say this. You can just copy and paste them right out of the show notes from whatever app you're using.

Now, there's two ways to use ChatGPT to help you with this. You have the free version, which costs zero money, and you can add basic custom instructions.

For example, tell ChatGPT that you're a real estate agent where you're located and that you want responses to be friendly and professional tone. And here's a prompt that you can use to do that. Inside the chat, you're going to type this in.

Ask me a series of questions to help define my real estate business foundation covering brand identity, target client market niche and target price point. Go one question at a time and summarize with Taylor's suggestion.

Now you can also use the paid version of ChatGPT and for $20 a month you can have access to create a more personalized and customized GPT that knows all about you.

You can load it up with information like your personality, writing and speaking style, contact information, market area, strengths and weaknesses, and even hobbies to help it create responses tailored specifically to you. You. Then you can use more advanced prompting to help define your plan. So here's a more advanced prompt.

Chat using everything you know about me for my custom setup. Guide me through a series of questions to help define my brand, ideal client, market, niche and price point.

Go one question at a time and summarize with tailored suggestions based on my unique style, experience and goal.

With just those two prompts, you can build a crystal clear foundation for who you are as an agent and where to focus your business in 2025, all based on your unique preferences and customized responses. It is literally like having a top tier business coach, one who normally charges thousands of dollars for their expertise guiding you step by step.

And you just built it in an afternoon for next to nothing. Now let's go to pillar number two, Marketing and client acquisition. Now this second pillar is about how you'll reach and engage your target clients.

And chat can help you build a tailored marketing strategy from social media to email outreach. Now another quick tip here.

When you go through this process, do all of this in the same chat because it's going to remember what you established from the first round of questions and generate responses tailored even more specifically to your business. Okay, so here's your free version. Prompt Chat.

Ask me a series of questions to develop a marketing game plan for reaching my ideal clients, cover my current marketing activities, preferred social media platforms and client engagement strategy. Go one question at a time and summarize with tailored suggestions.

Or if you got the paid version, here's your custom prompt Number two Chat Based on my custom GPT Ask me a series of tailored questions about my favorite marketing activities, best social platforms for my target clients, and ways I currently engage my clients. Go one question at a time and summarize with tailored suggestions based on my unique style, experience and goals.

These prompts are going to lay a foundation and begin to give you a roadmap on specific marketing actions you can take to attract and retain clients.

And in the coming weeks, we're going to build on these strategies and get more specific on the hows, the wins and the what's to accomplish these overarching plans. And finally, let's move on to pillar number three, operations and professional growth.

So this third pillar is about daily and weekly operations, time management and professional growth.

This is where you're going to begin to set up the systems and habits to stay organized on task and continually developing new skills that not only grow your business, but help you grow as a human being. So here's your basic prompt number one.

Guide me in building my operations plan with questions about my daily and weekly routines, skill building goals and wellness practices. Go one question at a time and summarize with suggestions for improving my time management and focus.

Here's a prompt that you can use with your custom GPT chat.

Using my custom profile, ask tailored questions on organizing my schedule skills to develop for my target market and wellness routines to keep me motivated in growing my business. Go one question at a time and summarize with Taylor's suggestions based on my unique style, experience and goals.

By using these prompts, ChatGPT can help you establish a solid foundation of efficient systems and skill building activities that'll keep you sharp throughout 2025. And this part is so crucial to executing your plan successfully.

As James Clear puts it in my favorite book, Atomic Habits, you don't rise to the level of your goals, you fall to the level of your systems. All right guys, there you got it.

Phase one of your roadmap to starting a strong business plan for 2025, all with the help of your newest business partner, Chat GPT. Remember, AI is just a tool, but it's one that can make business planning simpler and more effective if you know how to use it right.

One of my favorite sayings of all time, your brain, is for having ideas, it's not for holding them. And by using these prompts, you'll be taking your ideas and turning them into an actionable plan for the year ahead.

Now, if you want to dive even deeper, just let me know. I offer classes on creating these personalized GPTs, and I'm happy to bring this training to you.

Whether you want help with setup or you want to take planning to the next level, I'm here to support you.

So keep coming back each week the rest of this year, because I'll be adding some new prompts and strategies to help help you and your business for 2025. And together, we can take your business to levels that you've only dreamed of. All right, guys, that is a wrap on this week's episode.

From breaking down the latest mortgage rates roller coaster to exploring the evolving housing landscape and diving into what a Trump presidency might mean for real estate, we've covered a lot of ground today.

And whether you're navigating affordability challenges or leveraging tools to level up your business in 2025, staying ahead in this market is more critical than ever. I thank all of you for being a part of this amazing community.

Your support means the world to me, and I can't wait to see you back here again next time. And as always, be great humans and just keep grinding. Because life is what you make it, so make it great. See you next time.