Let's Start Your Real Estate Journey
Nov. 14, 2023

Real Estate Market Update: Nov 14, 2023 - IRS Changes, Inflation Report, and NAR Homebuyer Survey

Real Estate Market Update: Nov 14, 2023 - IRS Changes, Inflation Report, and NAR Homebuyer Survey

Welcome to another episode of the Texas Real Estate and Finance Podcast with your host, Mike Mills. Today, we have an exciting lineup of topics that will surely pique your interest. We'll be diving into the current state of inflation, interest rates, inventory, the U.S. credit rating, potential government shutdown, changes to the IRS tax code, and a recent report from the National Association of Realtors.

Additionally, we'll be exploring the characteristics of homebuyers and the homes they purchase. Have you ever wondered about the latest trends in the real estate market? Well, we'll be discussing some fascinating statistics, such as the increasing numbers of first-time buyers and single female buyers. These trends have significant implications for both buyers and sellers, and it's crucial to understand them for effective marketing in the real estate industry.

So, if you're curious about the impact of inflation and interest rates on the housing market, the potential consequences of a government shutdown, or the latest changes to the IRS tax code, this episode is for you.

The player is loading ...
The Texas Real Estate & Finance Podcast with Mike Mills

Welcome to another episode of the Texas Real Estate and Finance Podcast with your host, Mike Mills. Today, we have an exciting lineup of topics that will surely pique your interest. We'll be diving into the current state of inflation, interest rates, inventory, the U.S. credit rating, potential government shutdown, changes to the IRS tax code, and a recent report from the National Association of Realtors.

Additionally, we'll be exploring the characteristics of homebuyers and the homes they purchase. Have you ever wondered about the latest trends in the real estate market? Well, we'll be discussing some fascinating statistics, such as the increasing numbers of first-time buyers and single female buyers. These trends have significant implications for both buyers and sellers, and it's crucial to understand them for effective marketing in the real estate industry.

So, if you're curious about the impact of inflation and interest rates on the housing market, the potential consequences of a government shutdown, or the latest changes to the IRS tax code, this episode is for you.

Get ready to expand your knowledge and gain valuable insights. Let's dive right in!

The Impact of Inflation on Interest Rates (00:00:08)

Discussion on the recent inflation data and its potential impact on future interest rates.

Changes to the IRS Tax Code (00:01:01)

Explanation of upcoming changes to the IRS tax code and their implications for real estate professionals.

 

Insight into the National Association of Realtors Report (00:01:47)

Overview of the latest report from the National Association of Realtors, focusing on buyer and seller demographics and its relevance for marketing strategies.

 

The strain on regional banks and commercial real estate market (00:07:25)

Discussion on the impact of a big entity vacating office spaces and the potential strain on regional banks and landlords.

 

Cryptocurrency market growth and US debt (00:08:18)

Overview of the significant increase in value of cryptocurrency markets and the record-high US household debt.

 

US credit downgrade and potential government shutdown (00:09:16)

Explanation of the US credit rating downgrade, the potential government shutdown, and the impact on borrowing costs and budget agreements.

 

First-time Homebuyer Trends (00:14:58)

The characteristics and demographics of first-time homebuyers, including age, marital status, and the increasing presence of single females in the market.

 

Housing Preferences for Older Buyers (00:15:49)

The housing preferences of older buyers, including the increase in senior-related housing and the downsizing trend towards condos and townhomes.

 

Factors Influencing Home Purchases (00:18:23)

The factors that buyers consider when purchasing a home, such as the quality of the neighborhood, convenience to friends and family, and overall affordability.

 

Financing the Home Purchase (00:22:32)

Discussion on the percentage of recent buyers who financed their home, the typical down payment for first-time and repeat buyers, and the sources of down payment.

 

Saving for a Down Payment (00:24:14)

Exploration of the challenges faced by first-time homebuyers in saving for a down payment and the need for content and advertising focused on this topic.

 

Home Sellers (00:25:42)

Insights into the typical age of home sellers, their reasons for selling, the average tenure of homeownership before selling, and the median time homes spent on the market.

Transcript

Mike Mills (00:00:08) - Hello, everybody. Welcome to the Texas Real Estate and Finance Podcast, weekly real estate market update. I am your host, Mike Mills, a local mortgage banker here in the Dallas-Fort worth Metroplex with 13 years of experience serving realtors just like you, helping your clients buy and sell homes, and working with agents from all walks of life. I've seen a lot in this business and enough to know that learning never stops, and I'm here every week to share my experience with you and find ways to grow my own base of knowledge. And together, we can help clients navigate the ever changing landscape of this thing we call a real estate industry. Now, each week, I bring you a short market update to make you aware of what's happening in the world of real estate so you can be prepared and manage your business accordingly. And this week is no different. Today I'm going to let you know what happened with inflation this week and what the impact will have on the future of interest rates. We're going to look at why inventory might be on the way up for the first time in a long time, and why this is good news for your buyers.

 

Mike Mills (00:01:01) - We're going to discuss why the United States credit rating is going the way of your deadbeat cousin who never pays his bills. Why? We could be headed for another government shutdown and some changes to the IRS tax code that you need to be aware of. It's an improvement, but it might not be enough. And finally, I'm going to let you know all about the National Association of Realtors most recent report about who is buying and selling home these days, so you can properly prepare for your marketing strategy for 2024. You can do all the marketing you want, but if you don't know who you're targeting, it can be a waste of time and money, so you'll want to stick around to the end for that. And speaking of the National Association of Realtors, I'm sure you've all been paying attention to the big class action lawsuit judgment that came down this past week. So on Friday, I'll be welcoming Amy Crennel, a local real estate broker who's been in the industry for 20 plus years and has a ton of insight of what it's going to mean for our industry going forward.

 

Mike Mills (00:01:47) - We're going to do a deep dive into the judgment and let you know what it all means for the future of real estate. So tune in on Friday for that one. And one last thing before we get started. If you find this information helpful to your business, please hit the subscribe button on your podcast platform. Our little community of real estate professionals is building more and more each month, and with every new listener, it helps me continue to put out more and more episodes each week. As our audience grows, so does the time I can spend putting these episodes together each week, and make sure that you have all the best information you need to take your business to the next level. So like, comment, subscribe, share and drop a review if you feel froggy. I can't thank you all enough for tuning in each week. Now let's get on with the show. So it's time for our weekly check up on how the economy is blazing along or not blazing along, as the case may be.

 

Mike Mills (00:02:29) - As of right now, the time I'm recording this, mortgage rates are actually down a pretty good amount from where they were last week. They moved from like the low eights to the mid Sevens, which is a pretty good move in just a few days. And as you'll see with the news stories we're going to discuss this week, this isn't necessarily a great thing for the economy. It's good for housing movement but not good for prices. So although as a lender, I'm thrilled to see a crack in the dam of these high interest rates, it may not be a good indicator for anyone else in the economy. You see, right now, homebuyers have to earn $115,000 a year to afford a median price home in the United States, according to Redfin. Median household income right now is only $75,000, and only 16% of the country earn about 100 to $150,000 a year right now. So not only is inventory tight, but the number of people who can actually be financially capable of buying a home right now is also tight.

 

Mike Mills (00:03:16) - Now, the good news is, though, is that the S&P 500 is up 400 points since its lowest level three weeks ago is the market rallying. Maybe it's partially due to the fact that the market's now expecting and pricing in for interest rate cuts in 2024. I honestly don't think that's going to happen. I really hope it does. But my logical brain tells me it's very unlikely. It's more likely that the fed might cut rates maybe 1 or 2 times next year towards the end of maybe Q3 or Q4, but that's probably the best case scenario based on what we're seeing in the market right now. So we had CPI inflation data released today as well, and headline inflation is down to 3.2%, which actually beat expectations for inflation, which is what strips out energy and food costs is still at 4%, which is still double the Fed's long term target of 2% inflation. Now, again, with my conspiracy brain being what it is, the reason your core inflation is higher because it strips out food and energy costs is because everything else is still pretty expensive.

 

Mike Mills (00:04:05) - Retail stores are still charging a lot, goods and services are still expensive, and I think a lot of that has to do with a little bit of corporate greed, because you have companies that are charging more because they can blame inflation for it, just so they can earn higher profit. And there's plenty of economic studies to prove this out. But we have gone down from 9% inflation to 3% inflation without a major spike in unemployment. So that's really good news. But what it also means is that the long pause is probably here for a little while. You see, the fed isn't likely to cut rates anytime soon, but they're also very unlikely to raise rates anytime soon, which means more often than not, that we're going to be in a pause for a good period of time, which is why I don't believe that we are going to have four rate cuts next year. Now, housing inventory is still almost 40% below the long term average, but in 2021 it was 70% below the long term average. So at least we're showing some improvement.

 

Mike Mills (00:04:51) - But even with inventory essentially doubling with the reduction in demand, we're still at historically low levels of available homes for purchase. But you can expect inventory. Ready to probably get better over the next couple of months because of seasonality. See this time of year November, December, January. You don't see too many people trying to buy homes, and you don't see too many people listing homes. But you'll start to see more homes hit the market because the overall demand for purchases will be down a little bit, which is very normal this time of year. We're already in low demand as it is, but it is expected to get a little lower. So you'll see homes start. The listings will last a little longer, but trust me, that'll all go away come March and April of next year when we get into the spring homebuying season. Chinese holdings of US treasuries are at their lowest level since 2009. China is selling our debt and they are not buying anymore. So this idea that they own our country and all of our debt just isn't quite accurate.

 

Mike Mills (00:05:36) - Now, some of this is because we're issuing a massive amount of treasuries to support our US Tet for wars in in Israel and Ukraine, but also because we've started a trade war that's been going on since basically Biden took office. And it has to do with chips and importing and exporting goods between US and China. As a matter of fact, we're actually importing more from Mexico and Canada than we are with China, which is the first time that's happened in a very long time. Now, also last week, median list prices on homes declined for the fourth straight month, but the median price is still only 6%, down from its peak in June. But you have to understand the difference between median and home appreciation. A median price of a home is when you take the aggregate of all the houses being sold in the market. Right now, that the median is the middle price of homes that are being sold. So it doesn't necessarily mean that your house hasn't appreciated, because when you look across the numbers, the median home price is down 6%.

 

Mike Mills (00:06:27) - But that just means that more homes in the lower price ranges are being contracted versus more expensive homes. Which makes sense because if your own if you own or trying to buy a 600 or 700 or $800,000 house or $1 million home, you're not really keen on paying 7 to 7 to 8% interest. Whereas if you're buying a two, 3 or $400,000 home, although the interest is prohibitive, in many cases, it still is a house that will turn over a little bit better because it has a lower price point. So all that means when the median price comes down, is that the volume of homes being transacted are on the lower scale of home prices, but home appreciation overall is still up about 4% from last year when it was at its peak. So that means that available home prices are still higher than they were last year. It's just the houses that are actually being bought and sold are coming in a little bit lower than normal. In commercial real estate news, we work filed for bankruptcy last week. This is a big issue for commercial real estate because as it stands, 20% of US offices are already vacant as of today.

 

Mike Mills (00:07:25) - And we work announced that they're vacating 70 office leases in New York and are also in 600 plus locations in major cities across the US. With this big entity pulling out of a lot of offices and no longer paying leases to those landlords, what you're going to see is this is going to put a bigger strain on regional banks that drive commercial real estate loans, because if these loans are starting to reset and these landlords are losing their tenants, they may not have the money to pay the higher leases or the higher loan costs that they're going to have to pay after these loans reset and go from 3% interest to 7% or 8% interest or whatever is available in the market at that time. So having a big vendor like that pull out of of office spaces all over the country can really put a strain on the regional banks that are usually the ones that issue these commercial loans and are going to cause landlords to not possibly be able to pay their rent, and then we or excuse me, pay their mortgage, and then we could see a big shift in our commercial real estate market.

 

Mike Mills (00:08:18) - That's not for the good. However, crypto markets are starting to see a ton of new money or liquidity entering their space right now. Just since November of 2022, crypto markets have added $600 billion in value. That's a 75% jump in one year. Bitcoin alone is up 120% in just the last 12 months. And although crypto is doing well, the US debt is not. Currently, we're at a record 17.29 trillion in household debt. And of that debt, 12.14 trillion is mortgage debt, 1.6 trillion is in auto loans and 1.08 trillion is credit card debt. And right now, car loans have an average rate of 10% and credit cards are around 25%. The government actually posted its third largest deficit on record at 1.7 trillion. We're spending 44% of GDP per year. Those are the same levels that we were spending when we were fighting World War Two against the rest of the planet, and because of this, the US credit was downgraded again. Now there are three major credit rating companies in the world right now.

 

Mike Mills (00:09:16) - You have Fitch, Moody's and Standard Poor's or the S&P. Think of it like Equifax and Experian and Trend Union for your credit. Now, Fitch already downgraded the US credit rating a few months back. But just last week Moody's cut the US credit outlook from stable to negative. Now, what this means is when we have two of the three credit rating entities downgrade the US credit, then it's pretty much a downgrade across the board. This downgrade means that it's more expensive for us to borrow money. We have to pay debtors a higher percentage in yield in order for them to borrow from us, because now we're considered to be a riskier bet. And let's just say the US government or the Biden administration is not very happy about this right now. And part of the reason for this downgrade is because we could have another government shutdown on November the 18th. Right now, the House of. Than it is has to agree on a budget. Now, the new Republican House speaker has put forth a proposal, but while it is is a temporary stopgap that pushes back the adjustment for these budgets to January or February of next year.

 

Mike Mills (00:10:11) - So this isn't even really a full solve. It's just a temporary stopgap again. So even if they do come to an agreement on this, if it's based off of that, we're going to have this problem pop up again in January or February of next year. Now, in the temporary resolution right now, there is no military aid for Ukraine or Israel, and there are no support for any border tightening measures that a lot of Republicans are clamoring. And because of this, this is getting pushback from some House Republicans and many Democrats, because when you have the House Republican leader pushing this plan forward, just by the nature of that, you're going to have a lot of Democrats that aren't going to be on board. And because it doesn't include some of the support that a lot of Republicans are looking for, especially for their border, you're having a lot of pushback there because it does not include any major spending cuts, which in order for us to get out of the deficit that we're in, there's going to have to be some spending cuts somewhere.

 

Mike Mills (00:10:57) - And if that's not included in this budget, then you're going to have a good chunk of Republicans that aren't going to vote for it either. And if you can't get Republicans or Democrats to vote for it, then that means it's dead in the water before it even gets presented. And that puts us in a very tight situation. To have a government shutdown again happen this weekend. I'm sure they'll get it figured out. They tend to always do right at the last minute, but there's going to be a lot of jockeying back and forth, and it's going to be a big story all the way through the rest of the. And finally, the IRS just recently announced their income bracket adjustments for 2024. Now they're raising each bracket by about 5%, which just means that if you made 5% more income in 2024, you're going to be taxed the same. And that's a good thing. That means you're going to pay less tax on more income that you make. But with inflation being what it is and having to pay more in property taxes and sales taxes and everything else, it is a somewhat of a relief.

 

Mike Mills (00:11:41) - But it isn't enough. It's not enough to help households really be able to enable to sustain paying the bills that they have to pay with the income that they've seen. Because as much as inflation has gone up, income levels have not kept up with. They also sent the standard deduction. It went up 5%. They had tax free gifts that went up $1,000 to 18,000. So if you give a gift to one of your family members at 18,000, you don't have to pay taxes on that. There was a max 401 contribution that went up $500 to $23,000 per year, and the max IRA contribution also went up $500 to $7000. So what that means is on an annual basis, you can apply up to $30,000 towards your IRA and your 401 K and not be able to be and not have to be taxed on that. All right. So that's the news for the week. That gives you a pretty good indication that we're starting to see things slow down a little bit, which is why you're seeing rates get a little bit better.

 

Mike Mills (00:12:29) - A lot of times when we see interest rates get hiked, like the fed has done so quickly over the last 18 months, essentially a lot of the impacts are not going to be felt for months down the road. So while the stock market rally today in the bond market rally today, and you're starting to see and people are starting to feel better because they think the Fed's going to cut rates, what they don't realize is that the slowdown in spending, the slowdown in GDP, all that means is the economy is moving slower. And when things move slower, people start getting laid off and you can see unemployment start to rise. So the next jobs report that we see, I believe it's coming out in a week or two. And then as we move into Q1 and start to see the reports for GDP for Q4 of this year, you're going to see to start, you're going to start to see those numbers start to come down. And, you know, for mortgages and real estate, that might be a good thing, because the cost of borrowing will probably move lower, because you'll start to see the stock market decline, because people will move their money out of stocks and put them into bonds in order to keep them safer in a declining market.

 

Mike Mills (00:13:24) - But a lot of times, the lag effect really plays a big role in this, because you don't see the impacts until months after the rate, the rate hikes occur. And all this means is that with the fed pause happening, that we've moved to phase two of what they are doing to settle the economy down. And this is where you're going to start to see the real impact of it. Because when they get to phase three, which is when they actually pivot and cut rates, that's typically when we're already in a recession and have been in one for a little while. And then they're starting to stimulate the economy, which is why they do rate cuts. Okay. So let's talk about the National Association of Realtors. They've been in the news quite a bit lately, but I'm not going to be talking about the lawsuit right now. You can check that out on Friday. I'm going to do a deep dive into that. But they did just release their annual profile of home buyers and sellers. And with the housing market being what it is right now, I thought this would be a great this would be a great way to see who is actually buying and selling homes right this minute, because it helps with your marketing, because you need to know who you need to be in front of in the market.

 

Mike Mills (00:14:19) - In order to reach more buyers and sellers. You can have a target and you can have an idea and you can throw marketing ideas out there all day long. But if you don't know who your customer is and you don't know who the people are that are buying and selling homes, then a lot of marketing dollars can be spent for not. So take this information, write it down, you know, put it into your advertising. Even look at like running Facebook ads. If you run Facebook ads, this type of stuff is great because you can really target who you're starting to get your message out to. If you're looking to gain more listings, or if you're looking to gain more buyers, you need to know who these people are. So be sure to listen to this one closely. Like I said, you may need to get a notebook out to get some of this down, but this is a lot of really good information. I'm going to move through it kind of quickly, but I do want you to be aware of everything.

 

Mike Mills (00:14:58) - So let's start with the top character. Restricts of homebuyers. So right now, first time homebuyers made up 3,032% of the market. This is up last year from 26%. Now. The increase is still below the 38% average that we've seen since 1981. But what that means is that first time homebuyers are starting to make a bigger impact in the market every single day. The typical first time homebuyer was 35 years old this year. That's slightly down from 36 years old last year, but the typical repeat buyer age fell to 58 years from an all time high of 59 years. So. So what that means is that first time homebuyers are getting a little younger, and repeat buyers are also getting. So the older folks are kind of phasing out of the housing market. Right now, 59% of recent buyers were married couples, 19% were single females, 10% were single males and 9% were unmarried couples. Now, this is the lowest share of married couples that we've seen since 2010. The demographic that you're starting to see really pick up steam is actually single females.

 

Mike Mills (00:15:49) - Single females are slowly moving up the ladder. You know, I understand why they typically have better credit. They take better care of their money than single guys, but you're starting to see them take a bigger share of the market. I don't know what this means for the composition of households and families these days, but just something you need to be aware of. 70% of recent buyers did not have a child under the age of 18 in their home. This is the highest share on record. In 1985, 42% of households did not have a child under the age of 18. I think this just means that fewer and fewer and fewer people are having kids these days, which could be a problem down the road. 14% of homebuyers purchase a multigenerational home to take care of aging parents because of children or relatives over the age of 18 moving back home, or for a cost saving. 81% of buyers were white or Caucasian, 7% were Hispanic or Latino, 7% were Black or African American, 6% were Asian Pacific Islander, and 6% identified as some other race.

 

Mike Mills (00:16:40) - Take from that what you will. There's obviously a big disparity in housing when it comes to ethnicity. You know, it could be it's part of that's population size because most people in the United States or most Americans are white or Caucasian. So that obviously plays a role. But there could be a greater there should be a greater representation of different groups, which just means that our federal government HUD, they're not doing a good job of incentivizing banks to make sure that they lend more and more to minority populations, which really is a shame. All right. So let's look at the characteristics of homes that were actually purchased. So 13% of buyers purchased a new home. So a new build in 87% of buyers purchased previously owned homes. Now this number is shifting some I think some of this data because it was from from the last 12 months. And you're starting to see more people move to new homes because of what they can do on price and rate and things. But you will see that number shift over a little bit when they do this next year.

 

Mike Mills (00:17:30) - But still, the vast majority of homes that are bought or sold are from pre-owned property. Now, buyers who purchased previously owned homes were most often considering better price at 38%. So what it's saying is that if people bought a new home, they were mostly concerned about the quality of the house and that's why they purchased a new home. But if they bought a previously owned home, it's because they were mostly concerned about the price, because typically new homes are going to be anywhere between 15 to 20% more expensive than a pre-owned home in a similar neighborhood. Similar setting. Senior related housing increased this year to 19%, from 7% last year for buyers over the age of 60, with 17% of buyers typically purchasing condos and 12% purchasing a townhome or row house. So basically, if they're older, they're trying to downsize into something that's more communal living versus then owning a house and having to take care of the the landscaping and the grass and the repairs that come with that. Which is why you probably saw a big increase, because you're starting to see people that are downsizing from big homes down to smaller homes, and that's a greater percentage of the population.

 

Mike Mills (00:18:23) - Now, the median distance between the home that recent buyers purchased and the home that they move from was about 20 miles. Now, this is a decline from 50 miles last year, but is a reversion back towards the previous held norm of about 15 miles. Now, the reason for that is you saw a lot of people moving from Covid, so they were moving from state to state, where once that kind of died down in the Covid stuff had kind of gone away a little bit. Then you started seeing people moving within closer ranges. But that's why you see such a variance. For buyers, 60% cited quality of the neighborhood is the most important factor when determining the location, convenience to friends and family, and overall affordability of homes were cited at 45 and 39%. So just basically means that when people are moving neighborhood, neighborhood, location, location, that's what they care about. Buyers typically purchase their homes for 100% of the asking price, with 25% purchasing for more than the asking price. So that means you don't see a ton of price reductions.

 

Mike Mills (00:19:12) - Every market is different, and there's places in Texas right now where you are seeing more price reductions, but when you take it on the aggregate, what it's telling you is that most people are paying less price. And in a lot of cases there are not a lot of cases. But in 25% of the cases, they're actually paying above list price because again, we still don't have enough inventory. I'm like a broken record on this. If you listen to this show, I say this all the time, but that's where we're at currently. Now, the typical home that was recently purchased was about 1800 or it's about 1900 square feet, had three bedrooms and two bathrooms, and it was built in 1985. So that means if the median home price is close to $400,000, and there are people paying $400,000 for 2000 square foot homes that were built 50 years ago, is that how long it is? Yes, my math is short on that, but. But yes, 50 years ago. That's unbelievable. I mean, I'm sure the two don't directly correlate, but it still means if that's the average home and.

 

Mike Mills (00:19:59) - We know what the median price is, and that's probably not that far off. And right now, overall, buyers expected to live in their homes for about 15 years, while 22% of them said that they were never moving. But being in the mortgage industry and the real estate industry, we also know that the average mortgage lasts about ten years. So the turnover that happens with this people's expectation of what they're going to do versus the reality of what they do, there's often a disconnect there. All right. Now let's talk a little bit about what their home search process looks like for buyers right now. So 41% of recent buyers, the first step that they took in buying a home was to actually go online and look for properties for sale. While only 20% of buyers first contacted real estate agent. So that means they're going online before they're calling you. 90% of recent buyers found their real estate agent to be very or somewhat useful information source, which just means that most people use their realtor and found them valuable and useful in the transaction.

 

Mike Mills (00:20:48) - Buyers typically searched for ten weeks and looked at a median of about seven homes and viewed four homes only online, and the number of weeks searching is unchanged from this 2022 report. All home buyers use the internet to search for home. The most valuable content on websites where photos, detailed information about properties for sale, floor plans and the real estate agent's contact information. 92% of recent buyers were at least somewhat satisfied with their recent home buying process. So that means that most people that go through the process of buying a home are walking away. I mean, the vast majority of people are walking away with a good experience. Now, what about the actual buying process itself? Well, 89% of buyers recently purchased their home through a real estate agent or a broker, and 6% purchased directly through the previous owner. And having an agent to help them find the right home was what buyers wanted the most. When choosing an agent, this was 50% of people. 43% of buyers used an agent that was referred to them from a friend, neighbor, or relative.

 

Mike Mills (00:21:41) - 13% used an agent that they had worked with in the past to buy or sell a home. 7% found their agent when inquiring about a specific property online, and 7% found their agent through a website without a specific reference. I'm going to revisit this number, but think about it a little bit. Thirt only 13% used an agent that they had worked with in the past to buy or sell a home. What does that tell you about what agents are doing to communicate with their past clients? It doesn't put it in a very good light. If 90% of people enjoy their experience when buying the home, and only 13% use the same agent again. Now, sure, they could be relocating to another state or something like that, but in most cases people aren't doing that. So it's really, really odd that only 13% use the agent they'd been working with before. That just means we're not doing a very good job communicating with our past database. 71% of buyers interviewed only one real estate agent during the home search, so they're not out there talking to five agents and holding meetings with them.

 

Mike Mills (00:22:32) - They meet one. They feel good about it. If you make them feel comfortable, they're sticking with you. And to go back to the 13% number, 90% of buyers said that they would use their agent again or recommend their agent to others. But yet out of this study, only 13% actually did that. So again, I think what that means is when they walk out of the buying transaction, they feel great about the experience. They're happy with their agent, their lender, the entire process. But when it comes time to buy the next house, because that agent is either no longer in the business or doesn't communicate well enough, they end up going 50% of the time with somebody else. That's crazy to me. All right, what about financing the home purchase? So 80% of recent buyers financed their home up slightly from 78% from last year, but still down overall from 87% in 2021. That usually means that there's more investors in the market, believe it or not, even with high prices and high rates, they're paying cash because they're not needing to finance it, and they're avoiding the rates, but they're buying a property.

 

Mike Mills (00:23:24) - The typical down payment for first time home buyers was 8%, while the typical down payment for repeat buyers was 19%. Again, that's just an average, you know, the minimum down payments on both homes or anywhere between 3 to 5%. So that just means that there are some first time home buyers that are putting down, you know, 20%, but more are putting down less. And then for the typical down payment for recent buyers being 19%, it just means a lot more people are putting down 20% and less money for 54% of buyers, the source of the down payment came from their savings. 53% of repeat buyers cited using proceeds from the sale of their primary residence. So they sold their house and use the money from that. And 23% of first time home buyers used a gift or a loan from friends or family for the down payment. Now, I found that term kind of funny because lending rules state you can't use money from a loan. I mean, guess technically you can take money out of like a lock, which is a loan, but we have to count that as part of your debt.

 

Mike Mills (00:24:14) - So I guess you can technically use loan funds, but you can't get a loan from a family member. You can only get a gift whether you pay them back or not. It's none of our business. But I just thought that was funny. And for first time homebuyers, 38% said saving for a down payment was the most difficult step in the process. Now, what that means to me is that if you're doing any type of advertising or information out online, social media or whatever, this should be a topic that you should focus on. How to save for a down payment. How much money do you need? What are the costs involved? You know, get with your lender, get with a partner and make make content around that. Because if that seems to be the thing that most homebuyers are having issues with, then that's going to be the question that they're asking. And that needs to be the thing that you talk about. More often than not, the majority of first time homebuyers did make financial sacrifices to purchase a home.

 

Mike Mills (00:24:55) - And for those who did, the most common sacrifice buyers reported was cutting. On luxury goods, entertainment and clothes. Buyers continue to see purchasing a home as a good financial investment. 82% reported that they view a home as a good investment, so that means the vast majority of people still understand that real estate is the best place to put your money. However, it doesn't mean that they're capable of it. So we don't. Maybe we don't need to spend as much time in educating people on the importance of purchasing real estate, and more on the nuts and bolts of how it works. How do we save our money? What kind of payments can we expect? What type of loans are available? What is the home buying process look like? These are the type of things that if you're out there putting marketing content online that I think you should focus on, because based on this data, it seems like most people feel like buying a house is a good investment. They just don't know how to do it.

 

Mike Mills (00:25:42) - All right, let's talk about home sellers. So the typical home seller was 60 years old and this was unchanged from last year for all sellers, the most commonly cited reason for selling their home was the desire to move closer to friends and family. This was at 23% because the home is too small. Was it 13% or a change in the family situation such as marriage, divorce or new child? That was at 10%. Sellers typically lived in their home for ten years before selling it. That's where this number comes from. About average life of a mortgage being ten years. Yeah. Among the seven of the last ten years, the typical tenure has been ten years. So ten years is how long people owned their home. So if you really want to get creative, you could go to deeds and see how long people have owned their house. And if anybody that's own their home for, you know, anywhere between 8 to 11 years, start sending out marketing information to them may not be a bad idea.

 

Mike Mills (00:26:22) - Recently sold homes were on the market for a median of two weeks, and this is the same as last year as well. So all that information is just helpful in identifying the whys and hows when it comes to buyers and sellers, and to effectively market your business. You get the most bang for your buck by focusing your marketing efforts instead of just pushing out stuff with no real plan. If you want to have success in 2024, it's going to take very strategic planning and knowing the data of who is buying and selling homes in the US is a great place to start. And if you want to find all that stuff right now, just Google Na's annual buyer report and you'll be able to find it. All right guys, well, that's all for today. I know this was really data heavy. There was a lot of numbers and information flying around, so I hope I didn't put you to sleep. But this is all stuff that you need to know. So hopefully you got a lot from today's episode.

 

Mike Mills (00:27:03) - And as business slows down for this winter, this is the time to get all your ducks in a row for the spring buying season. Get your marketing plan in place, get your systems and processes in place, and make sure that you're one of the success stories that can still call themselves a realtor at the end of 2024. My name is Mike Mills. Thanks for joining me today. You guys have a great week.