NAR Settlement Update 2025: What Realtors Must Know Now

Amy Cearnal
00:00:00

So instead, now we also have buyers that kind of have that gun to their head of saying, but I just want to go see this house. I'm interested in buying this house right now.

And they're like, well, the way that you can do that is sign on the bottom line, say that you're going to pay me a commission. Let's for round number, say a 3% commission. If you want to buy this house, I'm going to represent you and I'm going to do it.

And they're like, well, but who's going to pay that? The buyer agent's like, well, I don't know, because I can't look on MLS to see what is being offered.

But likely that seller is going to pay something towards that. And so we'll negotiate that out at closing. If the seller won't pay it, then you'll have to pay it. But probably that's not going to happen. Well, that.

Not great. Not great language, not great intention.

Like, that was not really what we wanted to have happen because the DOJ wanted this clarity that buyer was paying their part and seller was paying their part. And that that was really what was going to, like, unwind any sort of collusion that was happening. And we haven't gotten there yet.

So we just have this like random process right now where we don't have it on MLS and we have the buyer signing this thing. But it didn't really achieve any of the goals. And we've paid out all this money now too. So I think there is still major action to come.

There's still lots of conversation happening about that that, like, this is not over by any stretch. There will likely be action. The problem is we just don't know when that's going to.

Mike Mills
00:01:29

You know what, I don't know what just happened there, but my intro did not participate like it should. So we're just going to skip past that and just get right into it. I'll add it in post production, as they say.

So this is Texas Real Estate and Finance Podcast. My name is Mike Mills. I am a local mortgage banker with Geneva Financial. And joining me today is Amy Cornell.

She is a local DFW Realtor with Compass Real Estate Group. But, um, she has been in the industry longer than many of us have even considered thinking about it.

So not to mention, she has done everything that there is to do in our industry. She's done, obviously real estate.

She's been a broker, she's been in mortgage, she's been in title, and she even has dabbled quite a bit in real estate law. So to say that Amy doesn't know what she's doing in this world would be an understatement. So, Amy, welcome to the show again.

Thank you for joining me. And how is life treating you these days?

Amy Cearnal
00:02:23

Well, thanks for that awesome intro. Life's good. Yeah. So, yeah, I'm trying to dabble a little bit more on the law side, but still need that law degree, so.

Going to a lot of classes right now.

Mike Mills
00:02:32

Yeah, lots. Lots of schooling and reading.

But hey, lawyers run the world, so it's not a bad thing to get as familiar as you can with that space because they're the ones that are leading the charge on stuff. So I want to jump right into it and talk a little bit about. I know. You know, it's kind of weird.

This has kind of fallen off a lot of people's radar, mine included, by the way, which is, you know, the NAR settlement and what's kind of happened since, you know, because once we heard about the settlement, everything kind of got, you know, settled out. Everybody's like, all right, cool. We all move on.

Commission structures are going to change a little bit, but, you know, whenever we get there, we'll get there. And I think a lot of us in the industry have just kind of moved on to other things.

So I'm curious because this is something that you pay very close attention to. And I know there's been a few things that have developed. Like for, for instance, I'd like you to get your, your input on this.

So just, I think today or, or day before yesterday, the Austin Realtors association in Austin, Texas is going to give non realtors access to their mls, which is something that's never happened before. So, so what's, what's going on with this thing? Let's talk a little bit about that.

But also, you know, what else is happening in the world of NAR settlements and, and how our commissions are being changed.

Amy Cearnal
00:03:41

Yeah, well, let me start with kind of that. That, like, quick update on where we are with the NAR settlement and where we.

Like where it's kind of going on, some of this because really, at its core, we're at kind of a quiet period in this, but it is not over at all, unfortunately, and likely to have much more systemic effects that are coming that we do not even know about yet.

So, okay, so starting back October 2023, worst Halloween ever, where sincere Burnett jury came back and said, Wham O Nar and all these brokerages, you're assessed $1.18 billion because you have been conspiring against the American public. We waited six months for that to be ratified by the court.

In that six months, NAR the brokerages and the plaintiffs came together and came up with a counter sett was less dollars than 1.18 billion, but still many, many millions that NAR and the brokers came together and provided to that plaintiff group, mostly the attorneys.

Mike Mills
00:04:52

But okay, that's a whole other thing. It's crazy. It's like people are like, oh, so mad. And all the only people that made out on this are the attorneys. It's ridiculous. Yeah.

Amy Cearnal
00:05:01

So we had part money and then part injunctive relief, which that was not part of the initial thing that was presented by the jury. They only said money.

Mike Mills
00:05:10

So then real quick, what is injunctive relief for us legal, legal morons out here?

Amy Cearnal
00:05:17

Yeah, for sure. So NAR came back and said, hey, you know, yeah, you wanted money, but really you wanted us to change our bad acting ways.

And so now that we know this is not okay, we're going to change our ways. And so that's really what that injunction was about. Was about. Okay, yes, we're going to pay some money, but now we're going to do this.

And so really the injunction was over two things. It said, hey, we are not going to have those pesky buyer agent commissions on MLS anymore. You're right, we're wrong. Okay.

We're going to take that off of MLS and we are also going to have buyers sign a buyer agent commission before they ever walk into a house. So that way everybody knows what's going to happen and so it's just going to work out just peachy with that.

Mike Mills
00:05:59

Sounds easy.

Amy Cearnal
00:06:00

Yeah, yeah, totally easy.

So the problem with both of those, and let me break each one of them down a little bit, it is that neither one of them really get to the core of what we were accused of is this price fixing and collusion to set the rate that the buyer agent was paid.

So historically, and this is of records, this is nothing like magical that I'm saying, but historically it had been that a listing agent would go in to meet with a seller.

They would say, hey, seller, custom practice is it's a 6% overall commission where we're going to split that and you're going to pay, pay for all of it at closing, but half of it's going to come to me as a listing agent or listing brokerage and half of it is going to go to the buyer agent or the buyer brokerage.

And that's going to allow for this whole system of real estate transactions to work well, because that buyer can't be expected to come up with that cash because they probably don't have it. Probably.

Mike Mills
00:07:03

It's like a forward model.

Amy Cearnal
00:07:06

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

And so we said, but we're going to go ahead and front that for them because you don't want it wouldn't be fair for you to be represented and them to not be. And so we're going to come up with this way.

And really, honestly, I think that was a really earnest way to come about it and that there was no ill intention with that. But what didn't sit well with people was this concept of the seller paying for both sides of that transaction.

They're paying for an advocate for, for someone who is negotiating against them on there.

Well, this whole situation, when the court said, okay, yes, we're going to approve that injunctive relief of taking that percentage off of mls, the thought was, oh, okay, well now that's just not going to be a pre negotiated item. That's going to be something then that is negotiated on every deal because it's not on MLS anymore. Well, no, that's not actually what happened.

Instead what happened was the exact same conversation has still happened.

I mean that, you know, again, this is what I think now the Department of Justice is going in and looking at is saying is the exact same thing happening in living rooms talking to sellers, saying, hey, yeah, we can't put it on mls, but this is still custom. And so are you okay with it?

And the seller kind of by virtue of well, I need to sell my house says, yeah, okay, I mean if that's what I have to do, that's what I have to do.

Mike Mills
00:08:28

Yeah.

Amy Cearnal
00:08:29

So did not meet really at the core what the DOJ wanted to do. And DOJ kind of said that to Judge Baugh who made the final judgment in this, but he did not make any change to his plan.

He said, no, we're still going forward. They've negotiated this out, we're going to honor that. So we've got that like inherent sticky gross issue with that. On top of that.

Now we've actually kind of convoluted the system even more because now we're saying, hey buyer, before you ever walk inside that house, you're going to have to sign an agreement with some agent to show you and be your advocate on that before you ever even stop in the house. Now in some ways that is really good because it does allow a buyer to really research and know who's going to represent them what they're supposed.

Mike Mills
00:09:23

But who's like, it's like you should be able to research what car you're going to buy. And still people still just walk on the dealership and buy the first thing. I mean, it's, it sounds good in theory. It's like economics.

Economics to people always said, well, this is how it should work. It's like, that's how it should work.

Unfortunately, human nature doesn't drive it that way and humans are lazy and we don't follow patterns necessarily all the time and we don't do what we're supposed to. So yeah, it sounds good, but practical and theory are two different things.

Amy Cearnal
00:09:49

So instead now we also have buyers that kind of have that gun to their head of saying, but I just want to go see this house. I'm interested in buying this house right now.

And they're like, well, the way that you can do that is sign on the bottom line, say that you're going to pay me a commission. Let's for round number say a 3% commission. If you want to buy this house, I'm going to represent you and I'm going to do it.

And they're like, well, but who's going to pay that? The buyer agent's like, well, I don't know because I can't look on MLS to see what is being offered.

But likely that seller is going to pay something towards that. And so we'll negotiate that out at closing. If the seller won't pay it, then you'll have to pay it. But probably that's not going to happen.

Well, that not great, not great language, not great intention.

Like that was not really what we wanted to have happen because the DOJ wanted this clarity that buyer was paying their part and seller was paying their part and that that was really what was going to like unwind any sort of collusion that was happening. And we haven't gotten there yet.

So we just have this like random process right now where we don't have it on MLS and we have the buyer signing this thing, but it didn't really achieve any of the goals and we've paid out all this money now. So I think there is still major action to come. There's still lots of conversation happening about that that like this is not over by any stretch.

There will likely be action. The problem is we just don't know when that's going to be. So there are more and more still consumer lawsuits that are hitting the court system.

So it's not that's still happening. The DOJ is still being quiet. You know, are they waiting to have the judiciary say it so that it doesn't have to come out of the executive branch?

Like, there's all these, like, what is happening on this?

But likely we're in this quiet period that there is going to be another big change that's coming and that at that point, then maybe we'll have some, honestly, some stability from the industry perspective of saying, okay, now we know what to do. Because I don't think anybody's trying to do it wrong right now. It's just like, what. Until somebody tells us not to.

We talked about this on the podcast last time. I think, like, until somebody tells us not to do it, what are we supposed to do? So.

Mike Mills
00:11:55

Well, and we're coming from a place too, where I think if we were in a different market, then the, the, the expected outcomes of what, what they were looking for would have, would have kind of pushed along a little further.

Because if we were in a seller's market where sellers had a lot of people to choose from that were going to buy their homes, then yes, at that point those conversations are being had because the seller does not have to accept that offer if they're paying the buyer's agent commission because they might have two or three other offers that they can look at that maybe aren't offering that. Right. So there's always going to be a circumstance in that scenario where there was going to be more negotiation.

The problem is, is that we're very much in a buyer's market right now.

I mean, even though, you know, inventory is still relatively low, it is certainly coming up from where it has been the last couple of years, but we're not to six months or anything like that yet.

So, you know, in homes are still, I mean, I, I personally, it's anecdotal, but I have had at least my last two or three offers, have had multiple offers on the houses. I mean, because if you're in the right neighborhood, in the right place and you price the home right, you're going to get some offers.

So until that shifts, there's not going to be any market forces that are going to push agents and sellers and buyers into a position where they're going to have to kind of follow the way that they want it to do. You know, because they didn't explicitly say buyers pay buyer's agents, sellers pay sellers agents.

And they just said, well, we're just going to take it off. You know, it's, I don't Know, it's kind of like you, you're saying, I, I'm not going to let you. I'm not saying you can't have a cookie.

I'm just going to put the cookie jar in the other room so it's not as accessible to you. And you're like, what? Okay, I'm just going to walk over there and get it. Like, it doesn't make any sense.

And, and to your point, there is a, there's a lawsuit right now that's in Texas that just named 40 defendants over compensation. It is, let's see, it looks like it's a class action lawsuit. It was filed on December 14, and it's got several different brokerages in it.

It actually only includes, it looks like three or four sellers, but there are more than 40 defendants named in the complaint. And to me, whether or not you want to say anybody did anything wrong here, who knows?

But there are attorneys and there are sellers out there that are like, how can I get paid? Because I need to figure out how to make money.

And we just had a lawsuit, big lawsuit get settled, so why not file something else and see what we can do while the, while the iron's still hot. And you know, I think to your point, we're going to see more and more of that, more than likely.

Amy Cearnal
00:14:23

Yeah, I think we are, unfortunately.

And then at the same time, kind of what you were saying earlier about Austin mls, like changing their rules and some of this, we're seeing some broad based changes on the, the professional side for us as far as how our professional services are treated. So I'll just do a quick little explanation of that.

So in the state of Texas, Texas Real Estate Commission, they're the ones that license real estate agents. Right. So they're the government body that does it.

Then we have the professional organizations, which are our local boards of Realtors, Texas association of Realtors, now called Texas Realtors, and then national association of Realtors currently, or how it is in Arlington, where I am, you have to be a member of Arlington Board of Realtors, Texas association of Realtors and the national association of Realtors in order to join our local mls.

I cannot represent, really fully represent a buyer or a seller without not only paying my MLS dues, but I also have to pay all three of these dues in order to make that happen.

Mike Mills
00:15:26

You got to pay that man his money. Yes.

Amy Cearnal
00:15:29

Yeah. Yeah. And so there have been a lot of lawsuits and thoughts about like, is that really the right way? Is that pro consumer? Is that pro agent?

Like, what is really happening on it. And so we're now seeing some boards and MLS act proactively and say, hey, yeah, maybe that's not right. Maybe we need to like loosen up our reins.

Some of this we had been trying to hold, hoard sorry is what I was trying to get hold or hoard the data so much that maybe that wasn't the right thing. Maybe we need to just loosen up.

And so now we are seeing Austin being one of the first to come out and say, yeah, hey, you don't have or first in Texas anyway. You don't have to be a member. You don't have to be a Realtor member. In order to access our MLS data. We're also seeing changes.

Like I got a note this week that Houston is modifying and now they have access to all of the lockboxes up in North Texas at the north. In the Netrus area. I haven't gotten any sort of note from Netris that that's happening.

So I don't know if it's reciprocal or not, but we're seeing this more like looseness happen. Houston and Austin are already sharing data. So like, you know, we're inching towards more of a national database.

But that may be a long time away too. And so it's just hard to know how that's going to go on time.

Mike Mills
00:16:42

So I got a question for you on that because, you know, last time you were on and we've done it a couple of times, we have. I mean I love conspiracies are my favorite things, but we talked a little bit about the homes.com stuff and all of that.

So question is, it's if, if I were an mls, Austin, Houston, dfw, Netris, whatever, I would definitely be reaching out to the other MLs and be like, hey guys, like we got to get on the same page here because if we don't, they're coming for our business. So we need to figure that out. So do you feel like this is a. In response to that a little bit or do you feel like there's something else going on?

Amy Cearnal
00:17:17

Okay, so yes, I do think it's in response to that. But also keep in mind, who has ownership of those MLs? Do you know?

Mike Mills
00:17:24

I don't.

Amy Cearnal
00:17:26

It's the Boards of Realtors. So okay, Houston Boards of Real, Houston Border Realtors owns their mls. Netris is owned by Metrotex Arbor. Like all. All when you start looking at.

Yeah. Peeling back. Well, that's why they have tried to enforce you have to be a member of all three of the. To get the one right.

Okay, you're talking conspiracy theory.

Mike Mills
00:17:50

Yeah, yeah, yeah. So, okay, so then, so then the question is. All right, is that good or bad? Go ahead. What were you going to say?

Amy Cearnal
00:17:55

Well, and then I was going to take it a step farther on conspiracy theory, going back to Sister Burnett on some of it. Is that when you think about why are you a member of Arbor, Texas Realtors and NAR Arbor?

I guess because you have some Kumbaya time to like, have classes or whatever on a local level. And I'm not. I'm not saying anything negative about it. It's just that's. That's really, like.

There's just not a whole lot of substantive value of why we would need that in order to do our business. Texas does have some forms that we could use, which is helpful, but also a lot of the brokerages have the same forms.

It's not essential to the business. NAR also not essential to business, but that's where really the more substantive work is doing. And that's. It's this lobbying factor.

The Realtor party is important, by the way.

Mike Mills
00:18:42

It's very important.

Amy Cearnal
00:18:43

The most. Yes. The heaviest lobby in D.C. for many years. And we also have at all of the state levels, too.

And so when you look at a judgment, like since Burnett and like, oh, hey, doj, like, could you, like, just go over to the side for a little bit? Like, is that all. Is it all related? And if we see a breakup of agents paying for those three, do we not have as much impact?

And then we do have worse things happen? I don't know.

You know, NAR has done a fabulous job over the years of really representing private property rights and really fighting for knowing in a more significant way than. Than anybody else, honestly.

But they also have been very pro Realtor and trying to make sure that we're all protected, too, because we're all paying into that, too. So it's, it's an interesting question when you go down that conspiracy side of what does that actually look like?

Mike Mills
00:19:33

Yeah, and it's tough, you know, from the, from your standard agent point of view, because you look and go, okay, I don't like paying NAR Arbor and Texas Realtors because you're paying a fee for each one of those to become. To be a member. But I also don't like the idea of a.

Of a big conglomerate coming in and owning all this data and all this information and basically minimizing my value and pushing us not out, because you're always going to need Realtors, but you can certainly minimize the value to the consumer as to what they provide if you want to.

Amy Cearnal
00:20:04

Absolutely. And that's why we keep paying. Right.

Like, I, I don't anticipate a time when I would not be members of those three in order because I'm a professional in this industry and they are doing great things for us to really bring the industry together. But not every member that wants to be a member of MLS is in that same zone.

And so that's where then we see this, like, tug and pull and trying to figure out what that looks like. So it'll be interesting to see what happens long term for the professional agents and for other people that want to have that access that may not.

May not have been able to get it before, and now they can.

And so does that shift what's happening for the consumers when they're making a choice of who do they want to serve them in this real estate transaction?

You know, do they want to have, you know, the ability to, quote, unquote, not be price fixed and have that flexibility to not pay those commission rates? They could, sir, you know, do it on their own. It's just, how does that look and what's the reality of that?

Because we are still seeing so many consumers that in theory have that option right now that are not making that choice because it's hard. It's a hard job to do. And there's a lot of ins and outs on representing yourself.

And by having somebody that is a professional come and walk beside them, they are able to really achieve their goals and still feel like they're not overpaying for those services.

Mike Mills
00:21:21

Well, any industry that's heavily regulated, which real estate is, is going to have a challenge for a consumer to hop in and just do it themselves without any professional guidance. I, I just don't know of any industry that that's. That it's like your taxes, right? It's like, I mean, you can do your taxes for sure. You can go to.

But even still, you have to go to H and R Block or turbotax and they have to ask you questions.

Because if someone was just like, hey, do your taxes and didn't give you a service or provide, you would have to do a lot of learning in order to be able to do that.

And so, you know, and I look at real estate in the very same way in that, you know, and it's different from what I do to what you do because I'm an intermediary for a bank and, you know, it's providing loans.

But for, for an agent, you know, you are trying to represent or you're trying to navigate a transaction that involves, you know, two people, multiple contacts between title insurance, other agents, you know, title or excuse me, inspectors, appraisals, lenders, all of these people that are involved in this and to, to just kind of be a, you know, a school teacher your whole life and then one day decide you want to buy a house and then just step into that and go, okay, I'm going to do it my own. That's impossible. There's no way.

Amy Cearnal
00:22:28

Right. And it would limit homeownership. And that's what we're trying not to do.

That's the big thing for what NAR wants to do is try to help more Americans become homeowners. And you know, it's just a matter of how does the homeowner actually react and work with that system as they go. And that' just changing a little bit.

And you know, I think, I think it'll all even out at the white. It's just where we are right now potentially is not where we're going.

And we're just trying to be forward looking and make sure that we're serving with as many tools as we can right now as well as we can and but with an eye towards what's coming next on it.

Mike Mills
00:23:01

So if you were walking into Vegas tomorrow and they had a big board up there and they said, okay Amy, you got a bet on what's happening, what's going to happen by the end of 2025, like what do you think? You know, just, just nothing more than just Amy's opinion. Right. What do you think looks like these days?

You don't have to worry because you're not, you're not that handling all those other age. You could just speak your opinion. So, so what do you think? You know, between especially I'm mostly concerned with the brokerages themselves.

Do you see more consolidation? Do you see the little guy getting squeezed out?

And then in return for that, like do the MLS's win this fight ultimately or you know, does that big boy come in and start gobbling stuff up?

Amy Cearnal
00:23:39

Yeah, I, so what I hope we see is more options for the consumer.

I hope that the consumer will have a more of a breadth of options of hey, if I want to pay less and do a little bit more of the transaction myself, I have that option. If I want something that is like fantastic, I don't have to lift a finger, maybe I'm going to pay more than what is average to do.

But it's not just this, like, oh, I just kind of get what I get and I don't have any, like, choice or option on it. So I think that that would be my hope. The problem is we need the consumer to participate in that decision a little bit. Right.

And like, actually ask some questions like, okay, before I sign, what do you do? Like, how do you do this for me? How, you know, what's your difference between you and Suza Q over here? Like, so that's what I would hope for.

What my concern is is that the government is going to come down and say, no, hey, do it this way. Because we're not, the consumers aren't really driving that train well. We're the real estate industry is not driving that train well.

And because we can't get it onto a better course, then that potentially means government action coming in to help or, or judicial action by virtue of all these lawsuits. So.

Mike Mills
00:24:50

Well, okay, then here's another wrinkle to this which has changed. Does the Trump Department of Justice care that much about this particular situation or do they want more free market? You know, wild, wild, west?

Amy Cearnal
00:25:03

You know, if, if I were guessing that is part of why the Department of Justice has not gotten involved yet is that it was a little bit of a wait and see to see what the Trump administration would want them to do.

And I, if I were also guessing, it would be that the Trump Department of Justice would want to try to force somebody else to make that call instead of them, because it's not going to feel pro business. It's going to feel like it's busting up big government. Yeah.

And so I, I, I, I, I'll be interested to see, but I don't, yeah, I, I don't know that we're about to see DOJ come down in the same way that we would have potentially if there was not any president.

Mike Mills
00:25:47

Sitting, if it was a different administration.

Yeah, well, even, I mean, I don't know if everybody, I'm sure you know this, but I don't know if everybody knows this, but, you know, they, the, the head of the cfpb, which is the Consumer Financial Finance and Protection Bureau, which came into play after the great financial crisis, whose sole purpose, essentially, you know, depending on how you want to view it, is to protect consumers against fraud and scams and all that kind of stuff. And they had filed several lawsuits against big banks like Wells Fargo and Chase and had a lot of things that were kind of in the works.

And as soon as Trump took office, he Fired the head of the cfpb. He reappropriated the head to the. It's not the head of the treasury who, I'm trying to remember who, who he put.

But he's running two departments basically right now. Is it that maybe it is the head of the Treasury?

Amy Cearnal
00:26:33

Yeah, it's, it's. I don't think it's that, but Barnett.

Mike Mills
00:26:36

Or something like that is his name. I don't know. I'll figure it out. But, but he is in control of both the CFPB and his particular role.

And then they basically told him to stop and, and drop all of the lawsuits or I should say freeze everything that they were litigating at that point until further notice. So it would seem. I mean, I don't know that that's necessarily a great thing.

I mean, as much as I hate the CFPB for my industry, it does provide a lot of necessary things because people get scammed a lot. But at the same time, this, this is, it seems to be opening the gates up a little bit for whatever we want.

Amy Cearnal
00:27:15

It does. Okay, so it does have some of those guardrails that we potentially need just in society.

But I'll ask you the question, like, did cfpb, by virtue of throwing so many regulations on there, increase the cost of the consumer of the loan?

Mike Mills
00:27:32

Oh, absolutely. 100%. Yeah.

Amy Cearnal
00:27:34

And so we're going to.

Mike Mills
00:27:35

Every mortgage company had to have a huge, huge compliance department and people's sole job and that's all it was validated for, was to make sure that all the rules were followed.

Amy Cearnal
00:27:45

And so we're already in that situation on the lending side. Now we've got this first stab at, you know, try to fix on the real estate side, it's increasing the cost to the consumer on that.

Because now what do we have to cover?

Not just our cost of goods sold that we used to have to, but we've added on a layer of this, you know, potential for a litigation and for a liability that we didn't even know was out there. Like you're acting in what we thought was okay, it wasn't okay, and got hit with all these fines.

And now every deal going forward has to be priced in a way that covers not just what we did before, but also that risk that is on every brokerage as they go forward. And so it's going to be a very similar situation.

And so maybe the Trump administration is trying to just relieve that and say, look, consumers, this just is what it is like if you want to fix it, you've got to fix it from a consumer perspective. I, I don't know that they will.

Mike Mills
00:28:38

Well and I think, I mean, you know, again, whatever your opinion of a good or bad is, I mean we can see right now they're basically going, you know, department by department and you know, laying off employees, offering severances, going through the line item of where money's being spent and you know, there's always going to be spin on, on how like perfect example is the one that's going around right now is this Politico thing.

I don't know if you're familiar with it, but basically they're, they're saying that the Trump administration is saying that this aid USAID organization was paying Politico somewhere in the neighborhood of like $8 million a year or something like that, that to operate and, or you know, to kind of serve as their puppet essentially.

But what they were paying for, what the government was paying for was these high level subscriptions which were running anywhere between 20 to 30 thousand dollars a year. Individual people within the government were being paid for the taxpayers for these and it gave them analytics and all these websites.

But you and I both know that if, if I can subscribe to a service online that gives me all kinds of, of data and it can be a relatively low cost to be able to run that.

So you can argue and say oh these are just like on the left they'll say well those are just subscriptions like any subscription service that's normal and running a business. But on the right you could say well it's $34,000 a year for 800 people. Like that seems a little excessive.

You know, so, so everything is, but, but that's, I just tell everybody, buckle up.

That is what the next four years is going to be, especially as we go through how the government spends their money, where it goes and how it, how it applies to everything.

And I do think that you're going to see more and more of that, which for our industry may actually be a good thing because nobody's focused on real estate anymore. Nobody, they're worried about a bunch of other stuff. Nobody cares.

Amy Cearnal
00:30:27

Yeah, I mean I think they're worried about real estate in so much as that does the interest rate situation affect the price of eggs? And then, you know, if we don't start to loosen that, are we going to be in, in more of a free fall?

And so yeah, but beyond that, I think all of this regulation stuff, I do think they are not super focused on right now because of all the other and I would hope that, you know, even what you're talking about, these choices that have been made to eliminate excessive spending in the government, it was of a mindset of hey, I want to help the average American to not have to pay as many taxes. Right. And so if we're in a situation where we're saying, hey, because of that, we don't want to force Americans to pay more.

And so we're not going to have the DOJ come in and put their thumb on this industry because we think, we think that they're going to figure it out. We think that they're going to get to a balanced market. And some of those, maybe we won't.

I'm just not sure because there is such a target on the back with so much dollars coming through that we're going to be that unscathed or that we will have somebody to come in and say, no, hey, we need this.

Mike Mills
00:31:30

Yeah, I mean I, I really think that they, the, the worst is behind us to some extent at least, at least for the next three or four years. I really do because I think that they got their money, you know, that they got their blood.

And I don't think that the current political environment gives a lot of, you know, a lot of, a lot of credence to. We want to regulate more, we want to put, we want to punish these people more.

I don't, I don't see that unless there is a political gain from it, which, you know, who knows how things work.

But, but other than that, I think the, the tendency will be more to back off, let the business take care of itself, let the market dictate how things flow and then just see where it goes. And the only time that they'll put their thumb on the scale is like what you were talking about in the instance of interest rates.

I mean they were just spoke about yesterday how they were going to try to impact the 10 year treasury and try to bring that down. I don't, I haven't really read into exactly what they're planning on doing there. Bessant, that's the guy's name, I think it's Mark Besant.

But that, that's what they're.

Because they can't get the Fed to lower their rates, but they can get the 10 year, supposedly they can bring the 10 year treasury yield down which will directly impact mortgage rates because mortgage bonds and tenure treasuries compete for the same business. So you know, it's, it's possible if they're going to put their thumb anywhere it's going to be to try to make it rates less and more affordable.

Will it work? I don't know, but that's what they're going to try to do.

I don't think they're going to try to make it harder and more expensive and more difficult for people to buy and build homes. I don't see that at least over the next three years.

Amy Cearnal
00:33:03

No, I can't imagine. I mean they still want that basic American dream concept to come through and. Yeah, yeah.

Mike Mills
00:33:10

So. All right, well let's move on to, you know, the we just came out of what arguably are the worst two years in the history of real estate.

Between 2023 and 2024, you know, transactions were down to 35 year lows. You know, home prices stayed elevated. They did not crash. As people they are leveling off.

I think home prices are just so everybody knows they haven't fallen, they're just kind of easing out and plateauing. But inventory is rising. We're seeing more and more houses for sale.

Builders although are pulling back on their permits and they're not building as much. So don't expect there to be a big explosion unless everybody decides to move or gets laid off or goes into foreclosure.

Always possible, but I wouldn't say likely. So where do you see the spring home buying season headed as far as buyer's market, seller's market prices coming down?

You know what, what do you think the volume of transactions are going to look like? Like, what's your thoughts?

Amy Cearnal
00:34:05

Well, let me start with I did hear an interesting stat at the that Lawrence Yoon put out that said that 35, around 35% of Americans have their home fully paid off and another 35% have it down to less than 50% of the their loan to market value.

So you know, when we look at some of this like it seems like the sky is falling on some of this like oh my gosh, like prices aren't increasing as much. Well, no, I mean they couldn't. We can't just keep going at 10% a year.

And so it feels like a plateau even though it's just not the meteoric rise that we're on.

So you know, I think that we're probably up for a year that is similar to 2023 and 2024, that it's going to take a minute for us to really get our feet back underneath us for consumer confidence to get into a. People are saying like, okay, I'm willing to pay the 6% or more on that.

And what that looks like, you know, I hope that homeowners are choosing to improve their homes now. Like that's what I hope.

They're in this bunker downtime and saying, well, I'm just going to improve the heck out of my house because I'm going to stay here for a while. In practice, I'm not seeing that as much. You know, I'm still seeing homes that really still need a significant amount of repair.

And that, that's happening across the country that, you know, we have these cities that really were born out of the, the post World War II era.

And then, you know, they've grown and they, they got bigger in the 70s and 80s and 90s and now we have a lot of aging stock across the country of that things that, you know, plumbing related issues and electrical issues. Like it's not, it's not just one area of the country that's dealing with it. It is, it's pretty far reaching.

And so you've got a lot of homeowners that really need to address some of those things. But because they're not meteoric rise, they're like, well why, why am I gonna do that?

Like, I'm just gonna wait until like I have a like tragic situation and then I'll deal with it.

And I wish that people would just go ahead and start dealing with that so that, that way then when they go to sell their property, we would have a better product to put on the market. I just don't know that that's what we're actually seeing. And that's what I hear from consumers. I'd be interested what you're hearing.

Like they're saying like I would move, but there's not anything out there that really like I want to spend my money on that is so much better than what I've got.

Mike Mills
00:36:24

That. Well, yeah, and you're have, you're really having two, you're having two things. You're having that where there's.

If you bought your house in 2017 or 2018 or 2019, and you paid $300,000 for it, let's say today, it's probably worth north of four, you know, even maybe touching five, depending on where you're at, right. So in order for you to make a step up right in that environment, you're going to have to buy something that's six or $700,000.

So you went for buying a $300,000 house house to a $700,000 house. So that's limiting. Right, right there.

Then when you factor in the interest rate part of it, which also limits the desire to want to make that step up. Because now it's going to cost me double in rate what I paid for my house originally. So that limits people's desire to move.

Like they don't unless they absolutely have to move. And that's, that's what I'm telling buyers all the time that I talk to.

I'm like, if you see a house that's been on the market for 30, 60 days and it's been sitting there for a minute, you're going to get a deal of some kind mind. Because if their house is for sale, they have to sell it right now. They're not, it's not like a want to.

There's not people out there just like, ah, let's just see what can happen, right?

If you're selling a house, there's a, generally a reason why it may not be like you're financially destitute and maybe you can play it out a little bit, but you're moving, you're, you know, getting, liquidating some assets, whatever it is that you're doing, like that's happening. So that's number one. Number two is let's say that I'm one of that 35 that has my house paid for. Okay?

Well that doesn't necessarily mean that I have hundreds of thousands of dollars in the bank to go put 40 grand into my home to improve it. So if I'm going to improve my house, what do I got to do? I got to get a loan, right?

Well, if I don't have a mortgage, I'm going to get a, I could do a equity loan on that and maybe I'm going to get 7% interest on that. And I don't really like that idea because I don't have a house payment.

Now all of a sudden I'm going to have a $50,000 or $80,000 loan at 7, 7% if I already have a mortgage. Right. Odds are it's probably three, four, you know, percent because I got it previously.

Well, I don't want to refinance that mortgage into a 7% and do a cash out altogether. So my only other option is to do a heloc, right. Which is this relatively low cost as far as the fees are concerned.

But now you're talking about 9 or 10% interest or 11% interest. Right. So know, it's even more on top of that.

So I think that a lot of people probably want to improve their home, but because you see American savings rate dropping so much and you See, people have less and less money of investments in their accounts that, and they're not secure. A lot of people are not very secure about their job and that if I lost my job today, can I find another one? Probably not so. Or maybe not so.

I'm not trying to go out there and spend a bunch of money.

And I also don't want to take on additional debt because oh, by the way, Americans are in the highest credit card debt debt that they've been in ever. And interest rates on credit cards are 20 to 30%. So I just think that yes, they want to improve that asset that they have.

And that's probably a smart move in a lot of ways, but it's a painful one to do and just not many people have the stomach for it.

Amy Cearnal
00:39:25

Yeah. And I mean there's a whole other set of like, we don't really have great vendors in a lot of the markets to help with some of that.

And it's just, it really is. You, you've made some great points because it really does come back to how much disposable income do these families have?

And we're just in a economic situation right now where there is just not as much disposable income as we've had in the past. And things are more expensive. I mean a house at 6% is more expensive than the house at 3%.

And so where we saw a lot of velocity in the market in that Covid era, it was really pushed by that affordability perspective of what happened with the 3%.

And if we don't get to that, that place again, which maybe we won't ever get to that place again, then that just creates this reset of the entire American psyche and budgets and so how, how long is it going to take to get that to a different place? I mean, maybe 30 years. I mean hopefully not 30, but you know, I mean, it's not quick.

Mike Mills
00:40:24

If we ever got to a place again where rates were 2 and 3%, that's bad because that means that there's, there's been some sort of significant issue in the economy that has caused the Federal Reserve or somebody to start buying those mortgage backed securities again. Because, because you're not going to.

Or when I'm speaking specifically about mortgage rates, you're not going to see a massive fall in rates for mortgages unless it's artificial. And that was the issue that we had previously, you know, last episode I did last week with Conrad, which is coming out tomorrow.

We talked about, we were talking about people, you know, the ppp loans and the government assistance of the, you know, the paycheck stimulus checks that came out, out. And he said something about government assistance and I was like, you know what?

Our entire industry was on government assistance for like three years.

Because if it hadn't been for the Federal Reserve buying billions and billions of mortgage backed securities every month on the open market and artificially driving interest rates down, then you would not have seen the explosion of asset prices for real estate.

You would not have seen every Realtor and lender and title company and appraiser and inspector and roofer and insurance flooding into the market because there was so many transactions happening that you were just making money hand over fist. But it was not real. It was not a real situation. And we were being, we were all existing.

Whether you want to believe it or not, we were all existing on government assistance because if it hadn't been for the Federal Reserve, those rates would not be there and the demand would have not have been there.

Amy Cearnal
00:41:55

It's a very good point. Exactly right.

Mike Mills
00:41:58

And it's, it kind of, you know, know, it's a new reality and a new norm that everybody in the industry has to get used to.

And that's why, you know, before we came on, I was telling you that, you know, in the mortgage industry we've lost about 50% of mortgage originators, you know, since 2020 or 2021.

And then on the real estate end of things, you know, I read something the other day, I didn't dig into how accurate it was, but it said something like 70% of licensed realtors in the country closed less than 1, 1 or less transactions last year, which isn't, you know, that far off.

Like, I don't know what the standard, because, you know, a lot of people are licensed and they don't actively do it and they sell homes every once in a while. But, but that's still a pretty stark number, you know, when you look at how many people just aren't selling homes.

Amy Cearnal
00:42:38

Yeah, it's very stark. And it, it plays into what. Are there consumers out there that weren't being served? No, not necessarily. Right.

I don't know of consumers out there that were raising their hands to be represented by an agent that didn't get to be represented by an agent. It's that we've got too many agents right out there for the demand that we've got right now. Now, 2020 was a different story.

You know, volume was a different place, transactions were a different place. Now we're in a new world.

And so does that Supply and demand need to even out a little bit, potentially, you know, because like I was saying earlier, we've got a lot of fees that we're paying in to be, you know, in this profession, and it's not a real fun place to be if you're not making dollars to go with it.

Mike Mills
00:43:20

Yeah. Well, what would you tell.

And let's talk specifically about Texas, because every, you know, just so anybody knows, every single market in the country is different. And you can't even, you know, Dallas, Fort Worth to Houston to San Antonio to Austin, it's all different.

But, you know, when you're working with buyers and sellers now, like, what kind of advice are you giving your sellers? What kind of advice are you giving your buyers coming into a market like this and what their expectations should be?

Amy Cearnal
00:43:44

Yeah. So sellers and buyers really both need to get realistic about what it is. Right. So we've got sellers that are still looking for that brass ring price.

Price probably not realistic in 2025. It's not that there isn't a good number out there.

They just need to be realistic with what the market conditions are and go in and do that and not have some number in their head before they even get started on looking at it and saying, that's the number that I want. They've got to look at the data and say, what is my house actually worth?

On the flip side, from buyer perspective, they've also got to understand we are in some ways in a free market economy where if there are multiple people that want that property, it's going to go for more. And so you can't just be so tied into. Well, the, the comps say this and I can't pay this. A lot of times you can.

And we saw that in the 2020 market, too, where, yeah, there are ways for you to pay more and there are ways to, to make that deal happen. And if you want it, that may be what's going to have to happen for you to get that particular inventory property. There's not. There are not.

There are many properties out there right now. There are a few of them that are out there that people are really kind of desperate to get.

And they're the ones that are really what I consider toothbrush ready. They are. I can walk right in. I don't have to worry that the roof is going to fall in on me.

I don't have to worry about plumbing or it has a pretty kitchen. So I can invite all my friends over and do Instagram stories, whatever. Like, that's what the consumer wants.

And there just are not that many in our market right now that are available like that. So they are going for still a really nice dollar amount. Amount.

Mike Mills
00:45:18

Yeah. What about how.

How are you looking at, you know, from, you know, even from a seller's point of view when you're talking about pricing these homes and where to put them?

And are we still existing, you know, in a world where maybe you want to price it a little bit lower than what you think it is because you might have some little bit more competition, or are we trying to hit that number?

And then where do you think it's so important to have so much data now to that you can present to these sellers to say, hey, look, I know this is what you think, but here's what it is and what are you presenting as far as data so they can understand that.

Amy Cearnal
00:45:50

Yeah. So I am a huge data nerd.

And I think that data is a really important tool for the seller to have in their determination of their property value, along with the tool of having their agent analyze that data because it's Greek to them when they see it all. So we probably provide way too much data because we provide every data piece you can imagine.

We're providing it to our sellers, really trying to help them with the full picture so that then they can make that choice of where to go from a pricing perspective. But we are really saying, like, look, you've only got one chance to make a first impression, right?

Like, you can't go out super high and think that you're just going to do these, like little drops and that that's going to be a successful way, that it just shows blood in the water. We've said that for a long time.

You've got to go in with a realistic price to start and really get into a situation where the consumer stands up and takes notice from day zero on the market. You cannot be in a position where you're trying for a high number. In my perspective, I think that's going to be a L every time.

Mike Mills
00:46:52

Yeah.

Okay, so I want to move over to a little bit of on the agent side because, you know, you are a great person to talk to this about because you are, first off, you're always honest about how it's going. And then secondly, you've gone through a transition.

You had your broker, your broker or your brokerage that you owned, and then you've moved into a bigger brokerage where now, now, you know, you're kind of just on your own. You know, as an agent, you're helping a Lot of people came with you and you're still helping along with that transition.

But so now you've kind of had to find your feet, right? A little bit of okay, this is where I was trying to do things before now. So.

And a lot of that comes down to how you market yourself, how you put yourself out there to try to get business these days and, and what that looks like.

And you know you did a lot or you've done a lot recently with education because you know you got that big brain of yours and you're sharing it online. You've got AC Online that you do some YouTube videos, you've done a lot of reels just geared more towards agents.

But what has, what has that process been like for you?

What have you learned kind of going through all that to get you to where, okay, where are you trying to land to say okay, how do I, how do I fit my, my little niche of what I'm good at, what I can offer to consumers and then try to market that in this place where there's so many agents out there trying to figure, find their way.

Amy Cearnal
00:48:03

Yeah, so it's a great question and I will talk a little bit about it of do as I say, not as I do because I will tell you I'm really not doing this well right now.

Spencer and I forever have had a business based on relationships and we have just been super blessed that we have had a great community of people that have believed that we were good at what we did and they needed what we did and we were able to write it what we did for them and it just all worked and it was really good. That type of business is more based on in town moves.

So it's more of, you know, hey, my kid is going to Arlington right now but they really want to go to Martin and so we're going to move into Martin district or hey, you know mom and dad are going to move in with us so we need something with a mother in law suite or oh hey, we need something with a pool. But it's like these little in town moves which is normal. That's, that's a normal part of the real estate market.

But that is the part of the market that is not moving right now. Those are the people that locked in at that 3% and they don't have, have they. It's not that they don't have any incentive to move.

They would like to move but they're not seeing inventory that they really love. And there is nothing that is so desperate that's happening in their life right now that is causing them to move. Unless there is.

And, and some of some people there, there is. But ultimately our, our personal numbers are way down because of that. Because we are not going off of the traffic coming in from California.

That's still there. I mean they're still like people that are coming in from out of state. The people that are like in more of a desperate situation.

And so they either need to make that first time buy, which is tough right now at 6 or 7, or they need to, you know, they, they need something to happen on there. You know, maybe they are in more of like, hey, we got in over our head on a house, we need to get out. So there's just not as much of that for us.

Honestly.

We would do better to do more marketing and that's what a lot of the agents that we work with have done a fantastic job of really being out there on Google, really providing good quality to try to bring in what I consider that stranger business.

So people that they have not ever met or worked with before, but they are attracting them most of the time via online options and getting them in, explaining the system to them and then representing them well.

So maybe maple search, you know, it's, we, we also still have a lot of our people but now we're, we're transitioning some of them more to investing and doing some of that. It's just a little bit less on the retail side right now of those families wanting to make those more fun move moves.

Mike Mills
00:50:29

Yeah. Well, what is your, what's your been experience?

Because I know, you know, you, you, because you've done so much in the business, you have a ton of knowledge about, but it's, it's geared more towards agents right? Like where you understand, you know, here's the, get the G on the contract.

Here's what you need to make sure when you're doing your listing presentation, you know, all that kind of stuff. But as a real, as an agent trying to represent buyers and sellers, you know, that isn't necessarily something that's as helpful. Right.

So, so, so where have you, what are you trying to find your lane to say, okay, I'm gonna try this. And, and by the way, just so everybody knows, everything is trial and error, okay. And, and everything is like I tried this, I don't like it.

And there isn't, you know, you can go to any guru that you want that's a marketing guru that says you should do this and you should do that. And you know what, there's A lot of people that get that information and can put it to action and it works.

But like we were talking about a little bit before you got in here, you know, my, my thought on this stuff is always, you have to do something that you, that you want to do, that you like to do. Right. You have to do something that you're pretty good at. Right. And then you have to do something that you'll consistently do.

So if you're not, if you don't like it and you're not good at it and you're not willing to be consistent with it, then move on to something else because it's not going to work for you ultimately. So, you know, what's your, what's been kind of been your experience of kind of wading through those waters a little bit?

Because now with that business drying up like it has, we have to find new ways to touch more people and get in front of more people. So what have you gone, what have you and Spencer gone through trying to figure out, you know, where that lands in, in your trial and error process?

Amy Cearnal
00:52:03

Yeah.

So, like, for Spencer's side of the business, he's really helping to make sure that he's talked with people about their investment portfolios and what, what can he do to help on some of that.

And so that does help a lot of our current clients that are in a good retail family home for their primary residence, but they do want to still add to their portfolio. I will tell you, for me, I, I'm honestly just kind of a little out of the market on it. I'm working on writing a book right now.

And so that's been more of my focus over, like actually just stressing out about, oh my gosh, I gotta grab more of that business right this minute. I just have had enough other to say grace over that. I've.

I've just kind of been like, you know, the market's gonna turn around at some point and, and we're still representing. I mean, I'm still, while we been talking, I've still gotten texts from buyers and sellers and those kind of things. So it's not totally dead.

I just haven't been personally of the mindset of like, oh my gosh, this is a year where I need to hit this like, insane high number of production. I think that number is to come. And so I can be in a little bit more of a time of preparation to get to that place too.

And, and you know, kind of like what you were saying, like, we were government funded for a little while. Actually, part of my Bible study this morning was about like, like, you know, that they used to.

Or that, that biblically they were saying, hey, you should plow the field for three years and then let it rest. And so, you know, sometimes there is a little bit more of that, like, okay, we got to get ready for that next thing and, and be.

Make sure that we're going to be able to really be present for that and kind of to be authentic for what that is.

Because I can tell you I, if I were to go out and do a ton of Google postings or a ton of whatever, I just don't know that that would be super authentic for, for me because I am so much on this, like, risk reduction and like, you know, my people get that, but I don't know that I could grab. Have just regular millennials.

Mike Mills
00:53:49

Well, no, I mean, what, what you're doing and you know, the. What. Just curious. What are you, what are you looking at writing a book about?

Amy Cearnal
00:53:55

It's about this concept of what consumers need to say to their agent to help them understand, hey, this is how I want to hire an agent, and this is what I can expect to pay for that.

So, like, just to try to guide them through exactly what we were talking about earlier, that they need to help be part of this process, and they don't know how to do that. And so by helping, you know, we'll see if it, it comes together and goes off. But that's, that's the concept of the book is really.

Mike Mills
00:54:20

Well, you know, it.

What you just said about, you know, plowing the field and letting it rest for a little while, I think carries a lot just because it, I think it is a thing where once we blow and go for so long, right, you don't ever have time or it feels like you don't have time to sit and plan and think and like, okay, what's my next move? What's my next step? Right? And everybody, I, I said this forever when I got into the mortgage business in 2009.

So it was like right after, you know, everything fell apart, right? And rates were low. It was pretty easy to do, you know, but there was a lot more. That's when all the regulation came in.

So then it had shifted dramatically from you breathe on a mirror, you get a loan to now we're going to go look under your fingernails to make sure that you're going to pay this deal, right? So. But I didn't know any different. It was all. It was like, okay, this is just how you do It, So it wasn't news to me. Me. So.

But I always said that all the guys or you know, and there's a lot of sleaze bags that did a lot of shady stuff back then.

But let's say the high quality sales, you know, guys that were out there really putting in good stuff, making good money, having big teams that when the market fell apart and that went, you know, you went from making $700,000 a year to making maybe 80 or 100. Because that's kind of what it was for a lot of those guys. Guys.

I always said that those people were still making six or seven hundred thousand dollars a year.

They just maybe weren't doing mortgages anymore because you, you get to a place where you have a certain set of skills when it comes to dealing with people or dealing with, you know, solving problems or, or communication or whatever. And I think these are all fundamental skills that help you in any walk of life that you're trying to have success in in.

And I always felt like those, those guys were still making really, not all of them, but those guys were still making really good money. They were just maybe selling pharmaceuticals or they were selling medical devices or whatever.

And so I think as a real estate professional right now, I don't know and I, I tell the mortgage people on my side all this all the time too.

There's not going to be a place, I don't think where we ever get back to on the mortgage side at least, because where the comp structures were set up and how, how much cost was built into what they could do that, that you can make the same amount of money that you made over those three or four years.

I don't ever really see that getting back to it because as companies consolidate and which is happening and as you know, you kind of AI technology gets a little bit more integrated in what we're doing, which makes costs, you know, being a little bit more or I should say the need for humans a little bit less in certain aspects of it. I think you start to see. See comp offerings and things starting to shrink quite a bit.

And so then you have to look and go okay, can I find another way inside this industry to add to team members, do more volume, you know, whatever that is.

Like use my skills to do that or do I need to start looking at something else that's going to still be able to supply the lifestyle that I'm used to and what I can do and do I need to start checking those things out and maybe you need to do A little bit of both. Kind of find your way and see what's there. But, but, you know, it's not a bad thing to sit back and go, okay, am I in the right industry?

Am I in the right company? Am I doing the thing that makes me happy?

And if I'm, if I'm not in that, well, then I need to start, you know, resting a little bit, quote, and just seeing what other options are there for me to do beyond this. And, and I don't think anybody should feel guilty about that, like, oh, I failed. No, no, no, no. You're.

Things happen in your industry and the market changes and you have to adapt.

Amy Cearnal
00:57:55

It's just a transition time.

Yeah, we go back to those concept, that concept from good to great, which was almost exactly what you said earlier, of the three circles of what am I really good at, what do I like and what makes me money? And, and that's the piece too right now, is if the consumers decide, like, hey, I don't see value in that.

I don't want to continue to pay a commission structure in the same way that it was before, and there is higher costs and those kind of things that it just does not make as much money per transaction at some point. Yeah, you're right. Like, we've got to really take a look at that. And then unfortunately, the consumer is going to have to take a look at that.

Of then when they look up and say, hey, all, all those people that were really quality at this have left. Well, that unfortunately, that's part of. You don't get as quality of that if you're not willing to pay as much.

And so that's, that's part of what the concept of the book is about too. Of like, you know, look like it may be that you need to pay 10% of every deal.

I'm not saying that necessarily, but like, because if, if somebody can really help you get a deal and it has 10% of value to you, then you should pay that. And so, you know, I have people come up all the time that are like, you know, man, can't you find me a deal? Can't you find me?

And like, well, okay, but why, if, if I could do that deal or you could do that deal, what's my incentive to get it to you? I make 3% or I can make, make 30% if I keep it myself.

At some point the consumers have got to kind of understand that and say, if I need somebody to work hard for me and do a killer job, then I've got To pay a commensurate rate for that.

You know, similar to like if I'm going through a divorce and I'm, I don't want to hire the cheapest guy out there because I'm going to get taken to the cleaners. And so, you know, we've got to have some of that.

But ultimately that's, there's, there's only so much that I have control over in this, this grand world and real estate industry that we're in. And if the consumer doesn't want to choose me for the price that I'm charging, then okay, then I can't.

There's a lot of other things I can do and so we'll see what that looks like.

But it's a good question and I think a lot of agents are dealing with that now and it is just something that just need to be like really real about and say what does that look like? I think you've hit it on the head. I mean it was really an interesting thing that we'll just see what happens over the next few years. Years.

Mike Mills
01:00:02

Yeah. Well, I do think this year is gonna, gonna tell us a lot about what the future of our industry looks like. I really, really do.

Because you know, I think you have a lot of things that are going in the, you know, I think you have an administration that wants there to be commerce and they want there to be transactions had and they want costs to come down and they want rates to come down. Whether they can execute on that, whether they can pull it off and all that kind of stuff, who knows.

But that's, it seems like that's what they want want.

Amy Cearnal
01:00:28

And you're willing to get creative on it.

Mike Mills
01:00:31

Yes.

And you have an environment where the pent up demand is definitely, I think there because people want to move and they want to make changes, but they just haven't been able to. So I do think things will, will loosen up and I think it'll be, I do think it'll be better this year than it has the previous two years.

It's not going to be what it was, but, but it certainly, I think it's going to have some improvement. And then I think by the end of this year we'll kind of be able to go, go. Okay. Unless something dramatic happens with interest rates.

This is kind of what real estate is for the next, for the foreseeable future. And I need to decide if this is what I'm going to do or if I'm going to do something else. And I think, I think this year tell us a lot.

Amy Cearnal
01:01:09

I, I think you're right and I think this will. We are kind of in this new normal for of what to expect from a consumer perspective. Really.

The, the changes that would come would be on the real estate comp side, which isn't going to necessarily affect the consumers all that much in the, the grand scheme of things.

Mike Mills
01:01:23

Yep. Well, Amy, thank you as always for coming on with me anytime. I need lawsuit updates and what the heck's happening everywhere.

You're always a wealth of knowledge, so I really appreciate that. And, you know, we'll definitely have you back again sometime soon.

Tell everybody where to find you on, you know, for your business and where you guys are located and then we'll pop out of here.

Amy Cearnal
01:01:44

Yeah, you can Google my name and it should come up. So I know it's hard to spell.

Mike Mills
01:01:49

But you ran for mayor so I'm sure you'll show up somewhere.

Amy Cearnal
01:01:52

Yeah, feel free to grab that Google and it has all my contact information out there.

Mike Mills
01:01:56

Perfect. Well, thanks everybody that stuck around. I hope you enjoyed everything. We back again next week. We are going to talk about insurance again.

I know it doesn't sound like a sexy subject, but it is hammering everybody these days. And so the more you know about this stuff, the better. So I'll see everybody again next Thursday. Y'all have a great weekend and we'll see you later.

Thanks, Amy.

Amy Cearnal
01:02:15

Bye, guys.